The fuzzy belief Petri net we propose in this paper propagates fuzzy beliefs from observations at nodes that represent measured parameters to fuzzy beliefs of the truths of parameters at hidden and decision nodes. The fuzzy influences spread from the observation nodes throughout our new enhanced bidirectional fuzzy belief Petri net. Compared with Bayesian belief networks, it is simpler and fast...

estimating the final price of products is of great importance. for manufacturing companies proposing a final price is only possible after the design process over. these companies propose an approximate initial price of the required products to the customers for which some of time and money is required. here using the existing data of already designed transformers and utilizing the bayesian anal...

estimating the final price of products is of great importance. for manufacturing companies proposing a final price is only possible after the design process over. these companies propose an approximate initial price of the required products to the customers for which some of time and money is required. here using the existing data of already designed transformers and utilizing the bayesian anal...

For making decisions in everyday life we often have first to infer the set of environmental features that are relevant for the current task. Here we investigated the computational mechanisms underlying the evolution of beliefs about the relevance of environmental features in a dynamical and noisy environment. For this purpose we designed a probabilistic Wisconsin card sorting task (WCST) with b...

Given a probabilistic world model, an important problem is to find the maximum a-posteriori probability (MAP) instantiation of all the random variables given the evidence. Numerous researchers using such models employ some graph representation for the distributions, such as a Bayesian belief network. This representation simplifies the complexity of specifying the distributions from exponential ...

Social dilemmas have been regarded as the essence of evolution game theory, in which the prisoner’s dilemma game is the most famous metaphor for the problem of cooperation. Recent findings revealed people’s behavior violated the Sure Thing Principle in such games. Classic probability methodologies have difficulty explaining the underlying mechanisms of people’s behavior. In this paper, a novel ...

This paper examines the use of Bayesian Networks to tackle one of the tougher problems in requirements engineering, translating user requirements into system requirements. The approach taken is to model domain knowledge as Bayesian Network fragments that are glued together to form a complete view of the domain specific system requirements. User requirements are introduced as evidence and the pr...

We develop a probability forecasting model through a synthesis of Bayesian beliefnetwork models and classical time-series analysis. By casting Bayesian time-series analyses as temporal belief-network problems, we introduce dependency models that capture richer and more realistic models of dynamic dependencies. With richer models and associated computational methods, we can move beyond the rigid...

The Recurrence Local Computation Method (RLCM) for nding the most probable explanations (MPE) in a Bayesian belief network is valuable in assisting human beings to explain the possible causes of a set of evidences. However, RLCM works only on singly connected belief networks. This paper presents an extension of the RLCM which can be applied to multiply connected belief networks for nding arbitr...