This paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-oft criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any xed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator wh...

This paper shows that out-of-sample forecast comparisons can help prevent data mining-induced overfitting. The basic results are drawn from simulations of a simple Monte Carlo design and a real data-based design similar to those in Lovell (1983) and Hoover and Perez (1999). In each simulation, a general-to-specific procedure is used to arrive at a model. If the selected specification includes a...

We develop two specification tests of predictive densities based on that the generalized residuals of correctly specified predictive density models are i.i.d. uniform. The simultaneous test compares the joint density of generalized residuals with product of uniform densities; the sequential test examines the hypotheses of serial independence and uniformity sequentially based on the copula repre...

Matching estimators are widely used for the evaluation of programs or treatments. Often researchers use bootstrapping methods for inference. However, no formal justification for the use of the bootstrap has been provided. Here we show that the bootstrap is in general not valid, even in the simple case with a single continuous covariate when the estimator is root-N consistent and asymptotically ...

This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on currency futures, government bonds and...

We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed...

This paper studies model selection for a general class of models based on minimizing random distance functions. The proposed model selection criteria are consistent, regardless of whether models are nested or nonnested and regardless of whether models are correctly specified or not, in the sense that they select the best model with the least number of parameters with probability converging to 1...

In this paper we discuss sensitivity of forecasts with respect to the information set considered in prediction; a sensitivity measure called impact factor, IF, is defined. This notion is specialized to the case of VAR processes integrated of order 0, 1 and 2. For stationary VARs this measure corresponds to the sum of the impulse response coefficients. For integrated VAR systems, the IF has a di...

Article history: Received 25 October 2008 Received in revised form 19 July 2009 Accepted 5 January 2010 Available online 18 January 2010 In the finance literature, statistical inferences for large-scale testing problems usually suffer from data snooping bias. In this paper we extend the “superior predictive ability” (SPA) test of Hansen (2005, JBES) to a stepwise SPA test that can identify pred...

This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well improvements made to this measure inflation since 2003 finds that HICP continues fulfil prerequisites for index underlying ECB’s definition price stability. Nonetheless, there is scope enhancing HICP, especially by including owner-occupied housing (OOH) using net acquisitio...