As the climate changes, some species within existing plant communities will become maladapted to local conditions. Immigration of climatically-suited species is unlikely to keep pace. This study investigated methods of using 1) community similarity between current and projected future plant communities as an indicator of ecosystem stress due to climate change, and 2) geographic distance to clim...

We use a three-dimensional climate model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model II with 8 ø by 10 ø horizontal resolution, to simulate the global climate effects of time-dependent variations of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Horizontal heat transport by the ocean is fixed at values estimated for today's climate, and the uptake of heat perturbations by the ocean beneath the...

•Northern peatlands remain a CO2 sink of ?0.1 Pg C year?1 until 2300 under RCP2.6•Northern become source ?0.2 by RCP8.5•CH4 emissions from northern will increase 5-fold RCP8.5•Modeling peatland resilience, vegetation, and peat quality changes should be improved Intact remove carbon dioxide (CO2) the atmosphere through photosynthesis store in soils waterlogged conditions, while emitting methane ...

Abstract This paper demonstrates how climate scenario analysis can be used for forward-looking assessment of the risks and opportunities financial institutions, using a case study UK defined benefit pension scheme. It uses top-down modelling tool developed by Ortec Finance in partnership with Cambridge Econometrics to explore possible impacts three plausible (not extreme) pathways scheme’s asse...

We investigate the issue of “dangerous humanmade interference with climate” using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880– 2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the “alternative” scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of “dangerous” effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of ...

BACKGROUND Recent reviews suggest that the warming and acidification of ocean surface waters predicated by most accepted climate projections will lead to mass mortality and declining calcification rates of reef-building corals. This study investigates the use of modeling techniques to quantitatively examine rates of coral cover change due to these effects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Broad...