Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version...

1. Climate change will cause changes in average temperature and precipitation as well as increased fluctuations around the mean, yet few studies have considered the impacts of altered climate variability on plant populations. We tested whether life-history traits (expected life span, generation time and seed size) can predict plant responses to increased environmental variability across similar...

policies: a necessary approach Development efforts will be seriously hampered by the risks of climate change if these are not tackled. Reduced economic growth due to climate change damages, threatened or under-performing investments, lower food production due to maladaptation to climate variability and a changing climate are examples of the influence of climate on development. Unsustainable dev...

Climate variability has been evident on the Mongolian plateau in recent decades. Livelihood adaptation to climate variability is important for local sustainable development. This paper applies an analytical framework focused on adaptation, institutions, and livelihoods to study climate adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands. A household survey was designed and implemented in each of three broad...

[1] A bipolar seesaw of Arctic and Antarctic temperature anomalies has been reported to be evident in instrumental data on decadal timescales during the last century. This finding hinges upon a global temperature data set that for the area poleward of 60 S is derived from only one subAntarctic station prior to the mid-1940s, and does not include a substantial number of Antarctic stations until ...

Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6-year rainfall ma...

Stratospheric conditions are increasingly being recognized as an important driver of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate variability.Mindful that the observational record is relatively short, and that internal climate variability can be large, the authors here analyze a new 10-member ensemble of integrations of a stratosphereresolving, atmospheric general circulation model, forced with the obse...

Understanding relationships between variability in historical fire occurrence and ocean–atmosphere oscillations provides opportunities for fire forecasting and projecting changes in fire regimes under climate change scenarios.We analysed tree-ring reconstructed regional climate teleconnections and fire–climate relationships in upper elevation forests (.2700m) from 16 sites in eight mountain ran...

Farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe prioritise climate variability as their major agricultural productivity-reducing problem. This paper raises the importance of considering local farmers’ perceptions on climate risk, as this greatly influences on-farm investments and decision-making in agricultural management and production in semiarid Zimbabwe. A study was conducted in two districts of semi-arid Zi...