Using a sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947-2010, we examine predictability of commodity returns at the monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. We establish out-of-sample predictability by means of variables such as bond spreads, growth in money supply and industrial production. Predictability is strongest for raw industrials and metals indexes and weakest for foods and...

In two experiments, we investigated hemispheric EEG differences in 9(12) healthy volunteers during pointing to lateral and central targets. The questions addressed were whether horizontal pointing direction and the predictability of pointing direction modulated hemispheric differences (event-related lateralisations of the EEG = ERLs). To vary pointing direction predictability, targets were disp...

This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive international dataset, we find that interest-rate related variables are usually among the most prominent predict...

We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated sy...

A large number of studies have demonstrated that a linguistic unit with higher frequency and contextual predictability are realized reduced speech signals. This effect is known in previous literature as probabilistic reduction. few also demonstrate these effects may be memorized; is, average influence phonetic redundancy study aims to investigate the extent which reduction extend morpheme durat...

A measure of temporal predictability is de-ned, and used for blind deconvolution of sound signals. The method is based on the observation that physical environments act as smoothing -lters, and therefore increase the predictability of signals. These smoothing e0ects can be reversed by a deconvolution -lter which minimises a measure of temporal predictability. This -lter is obtained as the close...

This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend–price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the predictability of stock market returns: The adjusted dividend-price ratio is less persistent, in-sample ev...

This study evaluates the role of item predictability in auditory temporal coherence. Thirteen normal-hearing subjects were required to hold together long tonal sequences as single strings of notes. Temporal and spectral predictability of successive notes in a sequence varied as a function of experimental condition. As the frequency separation of the notes in the sequence increased, the subjects...

In this paper, we look at lexical categories and their predictability from a machine learning perspective. Starting from linguistic intuitions about predictability in three different domains, we show how standard techniques for analyzing classification tasks arive at a similar predictability scale. In the second part of the paper, we carry out machine learning experiments covering these domains...