We model 1927–1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default correlations. Our findings have important implications for portfolio credit risk analysis. First, a static an...

internal audit is a process affected by an entity ‘s board of directors, management and other personnel, designed to provide reasonable assurance regarding the achievement of objectives relating to operations, reporting and compliance. this definition reflects certain fundamental concepts. internal control is: • geared to achievement of objectives in one or more categories operations, repor...

This paper examines the impact of the R&D tax credit between 1981-1991 using confidential IRS data from corporate tax returns. This paper makes two key advances on previous work. First, this paper implements a new instrumental variables (IV) strategy based on tax changes that directly addresses the simultaneity of R&D spending and marginal credit rates. Second, it makes use of new restricted-ac...