We present an analysis of the timing data of the pulsar B1642−03, collected over a span of 30 years between 1969 and 1999. During this interval, the timing residuals exhibit cyclical changes with amplitude varying from 15 ms to 80 ms and spacing of maxima varying from 3 years to 7 years. Interpretation of these observed cyclical changes in terms of free precession suggests a wobble angle of abo...

We survey both academic and proprietary models to examine how macroeconomic and systematic risk effects are incorporated into measures of credit risk exposure. Many models consider the correlation between the probability of default (PD) and cyclical factors. Few models adjust loss rates (loss given default) to reflect cyclical effects. We find that the possibility of systematic correlation betw...