Short-term management of groundwater resources, especially during droughts, can be assisted by forecasts of groundwater levels. Such forecasts need to account for the natural dynamic behaviour of the aquifer, likely recharge scenarios, and recent but unknown abstractions. These requirements mean that forecasts, at say monthly intervals, need to be updated with current observations on a real-tim...

This paper presents the application of feed-forward multilayer perceptron networks and multiple regression models, to forecast hourly nitrogen dioxide levels 24 hours in advance. Input data are traffic and meteorological variables, and nitrogen dioxide hourly levels. The introduction of four periodic components (sine and cosine terms for the daily and weekly cycles), and nitrogen oxide hourly l...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a straightforward manner which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts obtained using a small benchmark macroeconometric model as well as a number of other alternatives are presented and evaluated using recur...

We discuss how physical modelling can be used to reproduce atmospheric or oceanic flows in the laboratory. The similarity conditions for the effects of density stratification and Earth rotation are first presented. Then examples of results obtained on the large ‘Coriolis’ platform in Grenoble are described. These include topographic wakes in a stratified fluid and gravity currents. Physical mod...

surat is a highly developed, thickly populated cosmopolitan character city with full of various activities going on day and night. any natural calamity which causes loss of lives to property and infrastructure along with effects on industrial processes going on has serious impact on economy of the state. therefore, it becomes highly necessary that flood events are studied and analyzed properly ...

background & aim: congenital hypothyroidism (ch) is one of the most common endocrine diseases and is a major cause of preventable mental retardation. early diagnosis of ch can help prevent future diseases. although time series techniques are often utilized to forecast future status, they are inadequate to deal with count data with overdispersion. the aim of this study was to apply poisson hidde...

Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h-9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h-8 da...

Macroeconomic forecasts enable the policy-makers to foresee the future economic trends and take prompt measures to ensure longer economic growth and quicker economic recovery. Accurate and timely macroeconomic forecasts may also help the enterprises to make better long-term business strategies. Social media has a swift and sensitive response to economic dynamics through online news reports, int...

BACKGROUND Acute diabetic emergencies are often managed by prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS). The projected growth in prevalence of diabetes is likely to result in rising demand for prehospital EMS that are already under pressure. The aims of this study were to model the temporal trends and provide forecasts of prehospital attendances for diabetic emergencies. METHODS A time series...

A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU project STACCATO (Influence of StratosphereTroposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity) with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed path...