We present a new model for lexical decision, REM-LD, that is based on REM theory (e.g., ). REM-LD uses a principled (i.e., Bayes' rule) decision process that simultaneously considers the diagnosticity of the evidence for the 'WORD' response and the 'NONWORD' response. The model calculates the odds ratio that the presented stimulus is a word or a nonword by averaging likelihood ratios for lexica...

In 2012, a skeleton was excavated at the presumed site of the Grey Friars friary in Leicester, the last-known resting place of King Richard III. Archaeological, osteological and radiocarbon dating data were consistent with these being his remains. Here we report DNA analyses of both the skeletal remains and living relatives of Richard III. We find a perfect mitochondrial DNA match between the s...

Interpreting and assessing the weight of low-template DNA evidence presents a formidable challenge in forensic casework. This report describes a case in which a similar mixed DNA profile was obtained from four different bloodstains. The defense proposed that the low-level minor profile came from an alternate suspect, the defendant's mistress. The strength of the evidence was assessed using a pr...

We propose adjustments for model ambiguity that survive in continuoustime limits. Our formulations emerge from continuous-time versions of two discrete-time recursive models that Hansen and Sargent (2007) used for a decision maker who knows neither models nor distributions of unobserved states. We use expectations of likelihood ratios (relative entropies) to measure concerns about model misspec...

We present the Almouti-type polarization-time (PT) coding scheme suitable for use in multilevel (M>or=2) block-coded modulation schemes with coherent detection. The PT-decoder is found it to be similar to the Alamouti combiner. We also describe how to determine the symbols log-likelihood ratios in the presence of laser phase noise. We show that the proposed scheme is able to compensate even 800...

BACKGROUND An increasing number of diagnostic tests and biomarkers have been validated during the last decades, and this will still be a prominent field of research in the future because of the need for personalized medicine. Strict evaluation is needed whenever we aim at validating any potential diagnostic tool, and the first requirement a new testing procedure must fulfill is diagnostic accur...

The power fallacy refers to the misconception that what holds on average -across an ensemble of hypothetical experiments- also holds for each case individually. According to the fallacy, high-power experiments always yield more informative data than do low-power experiments. Here we expose the fallacy with concrete examples, demonstrating that a particular outcome from a high-power experiment c...

In practice, parametric likelihood-ratio techniques are powerful statistical tools. In this article, we propose and examine novel and simple distribution-free test statistics that efficiently approximate parametric likelihood ratios to analyze and compare distributions of K groups of observations. Using the density-based empirical likelihood methodology, we develop a Stata package that applies ...

In modern medicine, sophisticated laboratory tests and imaging studies are often emphasized at the expense of history and physical examination, rather than complementing clinical assessment. Ancillary testing often fails to advance the diagnostic process, and increases patient risk and the expense of medical care. The relative value of clinical evaluation and technological methods is rarely con...

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is widely used to describe the discriminatory power of a diagnostic test to differentiate between populations having or not having a specific disease, using a dichotomous threshold. In this way, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-) can be calculated to be used in Bayes' way of estimating disease probabilities. Similarly, LRs can ...