The CLASS model is a top‐down capital stress testing framework that projects the effect of different macroeconomic scenarios on U.S. banking firms. The model is based on simple econometric models estimated using public data and also on assumptions about loan loss provisioning, taxes, asset growth, and other factors. We use this framework to calculate a projected industry capital gap relative to...

This study examines whether financial markets, especially excess stock returns, contain information about changes in future values of certain macroeconomic variables. Earlier literature documents that term spreads of interest rates can predict both nominal activity, i.e. inflation, and real activity, i.e. output, consumption and industrial production, in economy. We combine stock returns and te...

Inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary approach across the globe. In this paper, we examine the inflation targeting experience in developing countries. We estimate the effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance in these economies. The approach is based on the methodology applied by Pétursson (2005) which uses panel data to assess the effects of inflation target...

The paper considers the macroeconomic impact of shocks to agricultural output and of negative and positive price shocks. It is shown that negative price shocks have particularly large externalities: it is estimated that the overall impact of these negative shocks on GDP may well be double their direct impact. In terms of policy, the presence of externalities justifies subsidising the provision ...

This paper assesses the relative effectiveness of central bank independence vs. policy rules for the policy instruments in bringing about good economic performance. It examines historical changes in (1) macroeconomic performance, (2) the adherence to rulesbased monetary policy, and (3) the degree of central bank independence. Macroeconomic performance is defined in terms of both price stability...

Although the IS/LM-AS/AD model is still the central tool of macroeconomic teaching in most macroeconomic textbooks, it has been criticized by several economists. Colander (1995) demonstrated that the framework is logically inconsistent, Romer (2000) showed that it is unable to deal with a monetary policy that uses the interest rate as its operating target, and Walsh criticized that it is not we...

We develop a global vector autoregressive model GVAR to analyze macroeconomic shock transmission among the East African Community countries. The results suggest that there is a signi…cant growth and in‡ation shock transmissions from Kenya to the rest of the member countries while the transmission in the opposite direction is insigni…cant. The macroeconomic shocks are re‡ected more on prices tha...

During the 2000s, however, housing put itself on the agenda. Increased interest in housing was reflected in academic literature, in media commentary and in government and industry concerns. At the macroeconomic level, the start of the decade brought the chicken and egg problem of rising house prices and increasing housing debt. This raised concerns about the impact of increasing housing debt on...

Debt introduces firm vulnerability to insolvency as cash flow must be available to make interest payments. This paper reviews the empirical evidence on a sample of more than 6,000 real sector firms in 41 countries and their ability to service debt, as measured by the ratio of cash flow to interest expense, for the period 1994-01. Firmspecific, sector-specific and macroeconomic factors all influ...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government even though the historical accuracy and reliability is questionable. Moreover, professional forecasters lack a test environment in which they can test their forecasting ability. We design a play-money market game for economic variables that aggregates macro-economic information. We analyse participation and learning in such...