This paper is adapted from a speech given by James Bond at the International Energy Agency, 14 May 1998. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organisations, or to members of its board of executive directors or the countries they represent. The long-term price of oil should rest near its long ru...

How should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock? The New Keynesian literature has concluded that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do. In contrast, this paper argues that a meaningful trade-off between stabilizing inflation and the welfare relevant output gap arises in a distorted economy once one recognizes (i) that oil (energy) cannot be easily substituted ...

The literature on the relationship between real output growth and the growth rate in the price of oil, including an allowance for asymmetry in the impact of oil prices on output, continues to evolve. Here we show that a new technique, which allows us to control for both this asymmetry and also for the persistence of oil price changes, yields results implying that such control is necessary for a...

The literature on the relationship between real output growth and the growth rate in the price of oil, including an allowance for asymmetry in the impact of oil prices on output, continues to evolve. Here we show that a new technique, which allows us to control for the persistence of oil price changes, yields results implying that such control is necessary for a statistically adequate specifica...

There are few empirical tests that support the existence of information asymmetry. We add to this literature using bid-ask spread to capture differences in the level of information asymmetry just prior to the announcement of an open market acquisition of acreage or reserves by U.S. oil and gas firms over the period 1993 to 2011. Acreage is an area of land that is believed to contain reserves an...

Fifty North Sea oil & gas investment transactions were analysed using traditional spreadsheet based financial modelling methods. The purpose of the analysis was to determine if there was a statistically significant relationship between the price paid for an oil & gas asset and the actual or expected financial return over the asset’s economically useful life. Several interesting and statisticall...

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link b...

Oil sector is the most effective sector in these countries. Oil is the most important product that world industries use as the cheapest energy. The price of oil depends on the world’s supply and demand and many economic, political and geographical variables. This is the reason why the price of oil has fluctuations. The fluctuations in oil price lead to fluctuate in the oil revenues of the membe...

This paper estimates a dynamic model of the world oil market and tests whether OPEC countries colluded and whether non-OPEC countries behaved oligopolistically over the period 1970-2004. The model generates estimates of the shadow price of the resource with minimal functional form assumptions. Results support oligopolistic behavior among non-OPEC producers and collusion among OPEC producers exc...