Worldwide monetary and fiscal policies in the past few years have put into sharp relief the fundamental tradeoff between short-run stabilization and long-run sustainability that policymakers face. The paper is organized around this question: How do the effects of routine monetary and fiscal operations designed to achieve macroeconomic stabilization objectives change when the economy moves from ...

This paper reviews evidence of the gender effects of globalization in developing economies. It then outlines a set of macroeconomic and trade policies to promote gender equity. The evidence suggests that while liberalization has expanded women’s access to employment, the long-term goal of transforming gender inequalities remains unmet and appears unattainable without state intervention in marke...

This paper studies the effects of a one-child policy. A benchmark without the fertility constraint is compared to a counterfactual experiment with the fertility constraint in place. The results suggest that imposing the one-child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases output per capita. In partial equilibrium, an unskilled adult’s welfare is lowered by the policy. Howev...

This paper studies the effects of a one-child policy. A benchmark without the fertility constraint is compared to a counterfactual experiment with the fertility constraint in place. The results suggest that imposition of a one-child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output. In partial equilibrium, an unskilled adult’s welfare is lowered by the policy. Ho...

Many macroeconomic policy exercises consider the mean values of parameter estimates but do not use the variances and covariances. One can argue that the uncertainty of these parameter estimates is sufficiently small that it can safely be ignored. Or one can take the position that this kind of uncertainty cannot be avoided no matter what one does. Thus it is just as well to ignore it while makin...

In this paper we study macroeconomic stabilization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a dynamic game approach. With the aid of a stylized macroeconomic model, this paper analyzes the transmission and interaction of national fiscal policies and monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the EMU. A special focus is on the effects of labor market institutions in the particip...

Feedback into the broader policy debate in macroeconomic and related structural areas remains limited. However, when a more informed debate and broadening of the policy space did take place on these issues, the policy outcome was generally positive. In contrast, when controversial issues involving difficult trade-offs were avoided during the PRS process, the consequences for “downstream” polici...

This paper presents India’s economic growth by comparing it to that of the United States. In addition, this paper analyzes current events in India under a macroeconomic lens as it provides the macroeconomic impacts of said events. More specifically, this paper focuses on the ways in which unexpected severe flooding have impacted Northern India in the short-, medium-, and long-run. Analyses conc...

Previous work has used neural networks to predict the rate of inflation in Taiwan using four measures of ‘money’ (simple sum and three Divisia measures). In this work a new approach is developed that uses an evolutionary strategy as a predictive tool. This approach is simple to implement yet produces results that compare favourably with the neural network predictions. Our preferred inflation fo...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of parametric reforms. An adjusted Auerbach-Kotlikoff model is used to study the effects of decreasing replacement and contribution rates of the pension system. The first part concentrates on the macroeconomic effect of reforms. Our results indicate that reducing the replacement and contribution rates increase the capital stock and d...