We examine what are common factors that determine systematic credit risk and estimate and interpret the common risk factors. We also compare the contributions of common factors in explaining the changes of credit default swap (CDS) spreads during the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period. Based on the testing result from the common principal components model, this study finds that the eigen...

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data ...

We measure credit risk premia—prices for bearing corporate default risk in excess of expected default losses—using Markit CDS and Moody’s Analytics EDF data. We find dramatic variation over time in credit risk premia, with peaks in 2002, during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and in the second half of 2011. Even after normalizing these premia by expected default losses, median credit ri...

We present a multi-step model to measure portfolio credit risk that integrates exposure simulation and portfolio credit risk techniques. Thus, it overcomes the major limitation currently shared by portfolio models with derivatives. Specifically, the model is an improvement over current portfolio credit risk models in three main aspects. First, it defines explicitly the joint evolution of market...

We present a multi-step model to measure portfolio credit risk that integrates exposure simulation and portfolio credit risk techniques. Thus, it overcomes the major limitation currently shared by portfolio models with derivatives. Specifically, the model is an improvement over current portfolio credit risk models in three main aspects. First, it defines explicitly the joint evolution of market...

We measure credit risk premia—prices for bearing corporate default risk in excess of expected default losses—using Markit CDS and Moody’s Analytics EDF data. We find dramatic variation over time in credit risk premia, with peaks in 2002, during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and in the second half of 2011. Even after normalizing these premia by expected default losses, median credit ri...

Credit risk is the distribution of financial losses due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of a counterparty in a financial agreement. We review the structural, reduced form and incomplete information approaches to estimating joint default probabilities and prices of credit sensitive securities.

In this paper we investigate the behaviour of credit default in start-up companies. Using a logit regression technique on a panel data of 1430 start-ups and considering a tracking period of three years, we tested the impact on the probability of occurrence of the first credit event in financing agreements due to variables grouped into three categories: financial capital, human capital and indus...

Using a large data set on credit default swaps, we study how default risk interacts with interest-rate risk and liquidity risk to jointly determine the term structure of credit spreads. We classify the reference companies into two broad industry sectors, two broad credit rating classes, and two liquidity groups. We develop a class of dynamic term structure models that include (i) two benchmark ...

Credit default events show cross sectional as well as serial correlation. While the latter is often neglected by current credit risk models, this work incorporates both types of dependence. A Bernoulli mixture model is considered, where in each rating grade the probit of the stochastic Bernoulli parameter follows an autoregressive stationary process with exogenous variables. The model parameter...