We investigate the limiting behavior of trader wealth and prices in a simple prediction market with a finite set of participants having heterogeneous beliefs. Traders bet repeatedly on the outcome of a binary event with fixed Bernoulli success probability. A class of strategies, including (fractional) Kelly betting and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) are considered. We show that when tra...

We study learning and influence in a setting where agents communicate according to an arbitrary social network and näıvely update their beliefs by repeatedly taking weighted averages of their neighbors’ opinions. A focus is on conditions under which beliefs of all agents in large societies converge to the truth, despite their näıve updating. We show that this happens if and only if the influenc...

R research has advanced our understanding of how people use the advice of others to update their beliefs. Because groups and teams play a significant role in organizations and collectively are wiser than their individual members, it is important to understand their influence on belief revision as well. I report the results of four studies examining intuitions about group wisdom and the informat...

This paper investigates the diffusion of around 100,000 articles about literary authors in 52 versions of Wikipedia. We studied how Wiki versions replicate articles of authors belonging to a particular linguistic group and we collected findings about the potential mechanisms governing the replication process and its fairness. Results showed that diffusion of articles follows a power law, govern...

Since early 90 ies, the Web has served as a unique corpus with background knowledge for various NLP tasks. The Web as a corpus has been employed in three principal ways: (i) obtaining Web based frequencies for specific terms and constructions, (ii) collecting term specific Web corpora by retrieving the corresponding text snippets, and finally (iii) constructing task and domain targeted corpora ...

Jeremy Waldron (1995) has felicitously labeled this argument “the doctrine from the wisdom of the multitude.” Most commentators agree that the mechanism accounting for the superiority of a group over any of its members is, in Aristotle’s view, the pooling of information and arguments that occur in deliberation. The idea of collective wisdom is new, on the other hand, to the extent that it has r...

Cognitive ad hoc networks are a natural endpoint for the evolution of the contemporary mobile, ad hoc network (MANET). In order for ad hoc networks to fulfill the promise that their title implies, they need to move beyond being merely mobile, peer-to-peer, distributed systems. For an ad hoc network to deliver a truly ad hoc networking service, it needs to evolve to a stage where the network can...

Social networks are primary conduits of information, opinions, and behaviors. They carry news about products, jobs, and various social programs; influence decisions to become educated, to smoke, and to commit crimes; and drive political opinions and attitudes toward other groups. In view of this, it is important to understand how beliefs and behaviors evolve over time, how this depends on the n...