OBJECTIVES To develop and evaluate time series models to predict the daily number of patients visiting the Emergency Department (ED) of a Korean hospital. METHODS Data were collected from the hospital information system database. In order to develop a forecasting model, we used, 2 years of data from January 2007 to December 2008 data for the following 3 consecutive months were processed for v...

In order to reduce the effect of numerical weather prediction (NWP) error on short term load forecasting (STLF) and improve the forecasting accuracy, a new hybrid model based on support vector regression (SVR) optimized by an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm (ABC-SVR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is proposed. According to the different day types and ...

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in OEAS Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Repository Citation Prista, Nuno; Diawara, Norou; Costa, Maria J.; and Jones, Cynthia M., "Use...

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious public health issue in developing countries. Early prediction of TB epidemic is very important for its control and intervention. We aimed to develop an appropriate model for predicting TB epidemics and analyze its seasonality in China. METHODS Data of monthly TB incidence cases from January 2005 to December 2011 were obtained from the Ministry of Heal...

This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were d...

BACKGROUND Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregres...

BACKGROUND Large-scale outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred frequently and caused neurological sequelae in mainland China since 2008. Prediction of the activity of HFMD epidemics a few weeks ahead is useful in taking preventive measures for efficient HFMD control. METHODS Samples obtained from children hospitalized with HFMD in Zhengzhou, Henan, China, were examined for t...