This paper estimates the speed of the adjustment coefficient in structural error correction models (ECM) and employs a system method for real exchange rates with Hansen and Sargent’s (1980, 1982) IV methods. Empirical results show that the half-lives of purchasing power parity deviations are less than one year in most cases. JEL classification: C22, F31, F41

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk depends heavily on the type of data transformation. JEL-Numbers: C12, C22, F31

This paper specifies two VAR models for testing efficiency and expectations in foreign exchange markets. The sufficient conditions for efficiency and rational expectations, by imposing restrictions on the VAR parameters, are derived. Based on these models, issues on testing efficiency and rationality are discussed with reference to previous empirical studies in the area.  2002 Elsevier Science...

Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current balance variables of corresponding economies. JEL Classification: G15, F31

Changes in the price of nontradable goods relative to tradable goods account for roughly 50 percent of the cyclical movements in real exchange rates. J.E.L. Classification: F31 ∗UCLA. †Northwestern University, NBER, and Federal Reserve of Chicago. ‡Northwestern University, NBER, and CEPR.

A database of individual forecasters' exchange rate predictions is analyzed. We demonstrate that only a small minority can be classed as rational, that most forecasts are inferior to easily available alternatives, and that relatively good performance in one period is not a reliable indicator of relatively good performance in subsequent periods. JEL Classification Number: F31

792 © 2013 Guilford Publications, Inc. †deceased. This research was supported in part by NIH fellowship F31-MH092000 (J.B.F), Harvard Psychology Department Rand grant (K.N.), and NSF research grant BCS-0435547 (N.A.). Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Jonathan Freeman, Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, Dartmouth College, 6207 Moore Hall, Hanover, NH 03755...

This article empirically examines the relationship between order sizes and spreads in the foreign exchange market based on a FX dealer’s quotes. It is found that spreads are independent of order sizes in the inter-dealer market, but they are negatively correlated in the customer market. JEL classification: F31; G14