We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960 2003. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the equity risk premium, and the other is through the volatility of returns. We find that the relation is asymmetric with downturns in the business cycle having a greater negative impact o...

This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a multiplicative stochastic evolution, using Wishart and singular multivariate beta distributions. A diagonal matrix of discount factors is employed in order to discount...

This paper investigates a range of statistical, neural network and hybrid approaches for making one-step-ahead forecasts of a monthly water demand time-series on the basis of 108 historical data points. A uni-variate approach, using solely the water demand time-series, is taken to construct two stand-alone forecasting models: a backpropagation network and a statistical model. A bi-variate appro...

In this note we estimate the asymptotic rates for the L2-error decay and the storage cost when approximating 2πperiodic, d-variate functions from isotropic and mixed Sobolev classes by the recent hierarchical tensor format as introduced by Hackbusch and Kühn. To this end, we survey some results on bilinear approximation due to Temlyakov. The approach taken in this paper improves and generalizes...

This paper estimates a tri-variate VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model to examine linkages between the stock markets of three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), specifically the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, and both the UK and Russia. The adopted framework allows to analyse interdependence by estimating volatility spillovers, and also contagion by testing for possible shifts in th...

This paper investigates the empirical evidence on the link between foreign direct investment and trade (export and import) in Turkey over the period from 1992:01 to 2008:04 by using the minimum LM unit root test for stationarity; Granger and Dolado-Lüthkepohl tests for causality. The test results based on the bi-variate VAR model indicate that there is no evidence of causality between foreign d...

Copulas are increasingly studied both in theory and practice as they are a convenient tool to construct multivariate distribution functions. However the material essentially covers the bi-variate case while in applications the number of variables is much higher. Furthermore, when one wants to take into account tail dependence, a desirable property is to have enough flexibility in the tails whil...