I argue that the theory of chance proposed by David Lewis has three problems: (i) it is time asymmetric in a manner incompatible with some of the chance theories of physics, (ii) it is incompatible with statistical mechanical chances, and (iii) the content of Lewis’s Principal Principle depends on how admissibility is cashed out, but there is no agreement as to what admissible evidence should b...

We study Hamiltonians consisting of a deterministic term plus a random term. Using a diagrammatic approach and introducing the concept of " gluon connected-ness, " we calculate the density of energy levels for a wide class of probability distributions governing the random term, thus generalizing a result obtained recently by Brézin, Hikami, and Zee. The method used here may be applied to a broa...

Abstract In a temporal context, sure outcomes may yield higher utility than risky ones as they are available for the execution of plans before resolution uncertainty. By observing disproportionate preference certainty, empirical research points to fundamental difference between riskless and utility. Chance Theory (CT) accounts this and, in contrast earlier approaches separate utility, does not ...

Many factors influence structural reliability in practice engineering. Some can be measured to obtain lots of data, but others are difficult acquire statistical data. In view this situation, a new analysis method is proposed using chance theory, which composed probability theory and uncertainty reflect random cognitive simultaneously. The performance function mechanical element defined, when it...

In this paper, we study the linear fractional transportation problem with uncertain arameters. After recalling some definitions, concepts and theorems in uncertainty theory we present three approaches for solving this problem. First we consider the expected value of the objective function together with the expectation of satisfying constraints. Optimizing the expected value of the objective fun...

We propose a formal theory to capture qualitatively the characteristics of utility-relevance and effect-uncertainty of chance. It sets a definite boundary between chance discovery and classical artificial intelligence planning: the former pursues partial realization of desire while the latter complete realization. The theory also provides a formal specification and deriving machinery for partia...