Global mean temperature at the Earth's surface responds both to externally imposed forcings, such as those arising from anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as to natural modes of variability internal to the climate system. Variability associated with these latter processes, generally referred to as natural long-term climate variability, arises primarily from changes in oceanic circulation. ...

The detection of anthropogenic climate change in observations and the validation of climate models both rely on understanding natural climate variability. To evaluate internal climate variability, we apply spectral analysis to time series of surface air temperature (SAT) from nine coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations, three recent global paleotemperature reconstructions, and Nort...

This edited volume is devoted to the examination of the implications of the inevitable changes wrought by global change on the welfare and livelihoods of tens of millions of people who live in dryland regions. Global change is more than just climate change and the ramifications of changing trade patterns (geopolitical and economic aspects), the shift to the market economy, demographic factors (...

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture...

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the c...

Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below ...

Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from local populations to drive regional characteristics of p...

Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below ...

abstract climate variability empowers critical consequences on sustainability of soil and water resources. in this paper the trend of annual and seasonal time scale of temperature (minimum, maximum, average), relative humidity (minimum, maximum, average), precipitation, wind speed, extreme events, cloudiness, reference evapotranspiration employing mann-kendall and least square errors were studi...

Rainfall observations in the Sahel region of West Africa show significant variability at the timescale of decades. Here we explore the mechanisms of this lowfrequency variability using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model which includes explicit representation of vegetation dynamics. By forcing the model with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the p...