[1] Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the ...

The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly prec...

[1] In this study, we evaluate the intensity of the CentralPacific (CP) and Eastern-Pacific (EP) types of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the pre-industrial, historical, and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the CMIP3 models, the pre-industrial simulations of the CMIP5 models ...

Projections of climate change are emerging to play major roles in many applications. However, assessing reliability of climate change projections, especially at regional scales, remains a major challenge. An important question is the degree of progress made since the earlier IPCC simulations (CMIP3) to the latest, recently completed CMIP5. We consider the continental Indian monsoon as an exampl...

5 A dynamical relationship that connects the extratropical tropopause potential tempera6 ture and the near surface distribution of equivalent potential temperature was proposed in 7 a previous study and was found to work successfully in capturing the annual cycle of the 8 extratropical tropopause in reanalyses. This study extends the diagnosis of the moisture9 tropopause relationship to an ense...

This paper shows that the selected CMIP5 models consistently capture such important climate features as the stratospheric cooling trend due to anthropogenic emissions, the stratospheric warming episodes due to volcanic eruptions, etc. However, authors have misused the CMIP5 data in sections 3.1, 3.2 and 5a as far as the El Niño/La Niña signals are concerned. Thus, the manuscript requires a majo...

Future increases in flooding potential around the world’s coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Yet, the two main approaches for projecting 21st century GMSL rise—i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical—give inconsistent results. Here, a novel hybrid approach to GMSL projection, containing a process-based ther...

During the period 1979–1992, on average nearly 400 people each year were killed in the United States by excessive heat (NOAA 1995; Kilbourne 1997). In fact, in this period over the United States, excessive heat accounted for more reported deaths annually than hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, and lightning combined (NOAA 1995). Furthermore, agriculture products such as wheat, rice, corn and maize ...

Citation: Alves JMB, Vasconcelos Junior FC, Chaves RR, Silva EM, Servain J, Costa AA, Sombra SS, Barbosa ACB and dos Santos ACS (2016) Evaluation of the AR4 CMIP3 and the AR5 CMIP5 Model and Projections for Precipitation in Northeast Brazil. Front. Earth Sci. 4:44. doi: 10.3389/feart.2016.00044 Evaluation of the AR4 CMIP3 and the AR5 CMIP5 Model and Projections for Precipitation in Northeast Br...

Observational evidence shows that the Walker circulation (WC) in the tropical Pacific has strengthened in recent decades. In this study, we examine the WC trend for 1979–2005 and its relationship with the precipitation associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the sea surface temperature (SST)-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of the Co...