The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in emissions. If something similar would happen in China, projected emissions would fall by 50% or more. Break-up uncertainty dominates other scenario uncertainty JEL Classification: Q54

This paper presents theoretical and empirical evidence on the nexus between corruption and democracy. We establish a political economy model where the effect of democracy on corruption is conditional on income distribution and property rights protection. Our empirical analysis with cross-national panel data provides evidence that is consistent with the theoretical prediction. Moreover, the effe...

return and volatility spillovers are important for portfolio selection, asset valuation and market efficiency investigation. using a var-bekk framework model, this paper investigates return and volatility spillover effects between three size-sorted equity indices in tehran stock exchange (tse). although daily return of large stocks leads small stocks (lead-lag effect), there wasn’t any spillove...

I introduce a model of corporate voting. I characterize the shareholder majority rule as the unique corporate voting rule that satisfies four axioms: anonymity, neutrality, share monotonicity, and merger, a property that requires consistency in election outcomes following stock-for-stock mergers. JEL classification: D71, D72, K22

Existing theories of coups against democracy emphasize that elites mount coups when democracy is particularly threatening to their interests. But holding interests constant, some potential plotters may have more influence over whether or not a coup succeeds. We develop a model where coups generate rents for elites and show that the likelihood of elite participation is increasing in their networ...

The post-communist transition was associated with two specific phenomena. First, political liberalization was initiated simultaneously with economic reforms. Second, instead of a short Jshaped adjustment, most transition countries experienced deep and protracted recessions. Some analysts suggest that the early introduction of democracy was in fact harmful for economic growth. Similarly, propone...

in this paper using catastrophe theory, we investigate non-smooth changes in tehran stock exchange. stock market crashes bring not only panic among investors, but also in deeper market lead to recession and decrease in consumer's confidence. as catastrophe theory is strong tool in explaining nonlinear phenomena, by applying stochastic cusp catastrophe model we examine sudden change in tehr...

Previous studies have examined the manipulation of executive stock option awards and exercises, focusing on information timing by managers. In this paper, we investigate potential managerial manipulation of stock-price performance motivated by executive stock options. To distinguish performance manipulation from information timing, we examine stock-price performance surrounding the departure of...

explanation relation between risk and return and capital asset pricing are concepts which is appointed as dominator and major paradigms in capital markets. so far as after offering capm by sharp & lintner, this model has been revised and criticized frequently. in this paper another version of capm has been tested versus traditional capm in tehran stock exchange. this version of capm measures se...

The paper presents a bivariate SVAR model including growth rates of industrial production and of stock prices. Imposing a long-run restriction à la Blanchard and Quah (1989) that excludes long-run influences of the stock market on real activity allows to decompose stock prices in a fundamental and a nonfundamental component. The results of the forecast error variance decompositions as well as o...