BACKGROUND The rising number of novel pathogens threatening the human population has motivated the application of mathematical modeling for forecasting the trajectory and size of epidemics. MATERIALS AND METHODS We summarize the real-time forecasting results of the logistic equation during the 2015 Ebola challenge focused on predicting synthetic data derived from a detailed individual-based m...

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast t...

The proposal of new analytical techniques has guided innovative methodological developments in public health interventions. The goal of this work is show advances in the development of a large scale system for space-time visualization, monitoring, modeling and analysis of epidemic data using a Grid platform. The resulting virtual laboratory, dubbed IntegraEPI, is expected to provide better epid...

Mobile malware is a relatively new but constantly increasing threat to information security and modern means of communication. Mobile malware evolution speedup is highly expected due to the increase of the SmartPhone and other mobile device market and malware development shift from vandalism to economic aspect. Forecasting evolution tendencies is important for development of countermeasure tech...

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponentia...