This paper describes the development of a predictive model for corporate insolvency risk in Australia. The model building methodology is empirical with out-ofsample future year test sets. The regression method used is logistic regression after pre-processing by quantisation of interval (or numeric) attributes. We show that logistic regression matches the performance of ensemble methods, such as...

The Japanese economy has suffered from persistent deflation since the mid-1990s, when the banking system fell into serious undercapitalization. In Germany and in China, worries about impending deflation have emerged, along with fear of prospective or hidden bank insolvency. In this paper I present a simple model in which bank insolvency causes deflation. During a period of bank insolvency, bank...

Scholars working in the ‘law and finance’ field have investigated empirically the links between various types of law and the incidence of venture capital finance. However, no study to date has systematically investigated the relationship between insolvency law— both personal and corporate—and venture capital finance. This paper argues that a nation’s personal insolvency law may have an importan...

We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a CDS market can be designed to rewire the network of interbank exposures in a way that makes it more resilient to insolvency cascades. A regulator can use inf...

Regulators, investors, consumers, and insurance brokers use insurer financial strength ratings to evaluate the insolvency risk of insurers. This article investigates the factors influencing the decision to obtain a rating or multiple ratings, the determinants of ratings for the three major insurer rating agencies, and reasons for differences in ratings across agencies. This study indicates that...

There are two competing theories explaining bank panics. One argues that panics are driven by real shocks, asymmetric information, and concerns about insolvency. The other theory argues that bank runs are self-fulfilling, driven by illiquidity and the beliefs of depositors. This paper tests predictions of these two theories using information uniquely available for the Panic of 1893. The results...

During the contraction from 1929 to 1933, the Federal Reserve System tracked changes in the status of all banks operating in the United States and determined the cause of each bank suspension. This essay analyzes chronological patterns in aggregate series constructed from that data. The analysis demonstrates both illiquidity and insolvency were substantial sources of bank distress. Periods of h...