This paper is concerned with the ability of speculation to generate a currency crisis. We consider a game-theoretic setting between a unit mass of speculators and a government that holds foreign currency reserves. We analyze conditions under which the speculators may be able to force the government to devaluate the currency. Among these conditions, we analyze the role of heterogeneous beliefs, ...

Motivated by a positive correlation between reserve accumulation and the widespread adoption of central bank independence legislation in Latin America, this paper develops sovereign default model with an independent that can accumulate risk-free foreign asset. I show if is more patient than government as households are, equilibrium, issues debt what socially optimal, accumulates reserves to und...

Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, which was US$5.4 billion in 1999, rose to an overwhelming level of US$51.3 billion at end-2007 and further to US$53.0 billion in 2008, but owing to the crash in the international price of crude oil in 2008 and the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the reserve declined to US$42.4 billion in 2009. In trying to determine the optimum level, the paper ado...

This paper is motivated by the popular view that the surge in China’s foreign exchange reserves is due to a distortionary exchange rate policy aimed at keeping the real exchange rate undervalued to support export-led growth. It undertakes an in-depth empirical investigation to quantify how much "mercantilist" and "precautionary" motives have contributed to the reserve build-up in China during 1...

Discussion of reserves’ adequacy has renewed after financial crises in Asia and Russia. It became evident that large international reserves made countries less prone to crisis. Special attention was paid to the ratio of a country’s external short-term debt to reserves as a very successful marker of potential external vulnerability that generally outperforms other reserves’ adequacy criteria. Th...