We review the effects of a dollar appreciation on U.S. inflation, and on U.S. import and export prices. We calibrate the effects to match the 15 percent dollar appreciation that has occurred since June 2014. Pass-through into import prices and consumer prices is modest. Specifically, a 15 percent dollar appreciation should reduce consumer prices by a quarter of a percentage point in the short r...

The supply side effects of both the nominal interest rate (i.e., the cost channel) and import prices on inflation are very important for the design of monetary policy. However, the empirical identification of the cost channel (traditionally associated with the advance payment of wages) has ignored import prices. We start by deducting a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) which shows that ignori...

We propose a candidate solution to the imperfect exchange rate passthrough puzzle: habit persistence at the level of individual goods varieties. Deep habits generate a dynamic import demand function that leads to import price markup adjustments, independently of nominal pricing frictions. Augmenting a standard two-country model with deep habits, we obtain low exchange rate pass-through to impor...

sugar, including processed goods in the world in the raw material for the production of agriculture and it is a strategic commodity. the intent of this research is to approach the game theory to analyze the relationship between import and export of sugar, iranian and brazil. the impact of changes in world prices and import tariffs, the welfare of the brazilian study. the data used in this study...

This paper examines whether recessions and booms are forecastable under the assumption that equity prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and random shocks are not. Each of the 214 eight-quarter periods within the overall 1954:1–2009:1 period is examined regarding predictions of output growth and in ation. The results for low output growth vary by recession— there is no common pattern....

Abstract What is the impact of import competition from other low-wage countries (LWCs) on inflationary pressure in Western Europe? This paper seeks to understand whether laborintensive exports from emerging Europe, Asia, and other global regions have a uniform impact on producer prices in Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In a panel covering 110 (4-digit) NACE industries f...

This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through into China aggregate import prices and prices of eleven industries under the HS classification. Chinese monthly data from July 2005 to July 2015 are used. Bounds test finds that all industries have co-integration relationship, with the exception of footwear and headgear products (HS12) and transport equipment (HS17). We have researched the shor...

This paper studies the extent and variation in import price pass-through for U.S. outsourcing imports. Based on data from 4,676 outsourcing products imported between 1991 and 2000 an average pass-through rate of seventy-five percent is found. The data also show that outsourcing import prices are influenced by the prices chosen by competing import suppliers. Notably, both the rate of pass-throug...