there are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. to answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. in the present study, the bayesian vector autoregresive model and seasonali...

While macroeconomic variables have been used extensively to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium and build models to explain it, relatively little attention has been paid to the technical stock market indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by studying the forecasting ability of a variety of technical indicators in comparison to that of a number of well-known macr...

in this paper, we examine influence oil shocks on macroeconomic variables and dutch disease phenomena when these variables encountered positive oil revenue shocks. statistical model which is copula approach is used to show when iran's macroeconomic variables encountered positive oil revenue casus dutch disease and oil revenue has non-symmetric influence on the growth economic. in another w...

this paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic aggregates in iran, by applying the techniques of the long–run granger non–causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto (1995). we test the causal relationships between the tepix index and the three macroeconomic variables: money supply, value of trade balance, and industrial production using quarterly data for t...

macroeconomic stabilitv is a major prerequisite fo r real economic growth. in th is study in order to allalyse tile empirical relation ship between macroeconomic instability and per capita real growth, a regression model has been specifi ed for tile iranian economy . in this equation , lour variables including hudget deficit as a ratio to gdp. intlation rate , percenltlge change in tile rea! ex...

This paper presents a GARCH type volatility model with a time-varying unconditional volatility which is a function of macroeconomic information. It is an extension of the SPLINE GARCH model proposed by Engle and Rangel (2005). The advantage of the model proposed in this paper is that the macroeconomic information available (and/or forecasts) is used in the parameter estimation process. Based on...