Consider a general finite-state stochastic process governed by an unknown objective probability distribution. Observing the system, a forecaster assigns subjective probabilities to future states. The resulting subjective forecast merges to the objective distribution if, with time, the forecasted probabilities converge to the correct (but unknown) probabilities. The forecast is calibrated if obs...

the relationship between economic growth and developments in the ‎financial sector has been one of the most discussed areas in economics ‎for a long time; and the direction of causality – whether financial ‎development causes economic growth or vice versa – is by no means a ‎settled issue.‎this paper investigates the short- run and long-run granger causality ‎between financial development and e...

this paper investigates the short- run and long-run effects of government size and exports on the economic growth of iran as a developing oil export based economy for the period of 1974 - 2008 using an autoregressive distributed lags (ardl) framework. a modified form of feder (1982) and subsequently ram’s (1986) model has been applied to include both government size and exports in growth equati...

This study is to investigate the short- and long-run causal relationship between agglomeration (localization and urbanization) economies and labor productivity in the manufacturing sector of 28 Iranian provinces over an 11-year period, 2001–2011. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method was used to estimate our long-run panel data model. The empirical findings suggested that localiz...

the main objective of this study was to evaluate the response of consumers to changes in income and prices of chicken meat in the short run and long run. in order to achieve this goal, vector auto regression (var) and vector error correction model (vecm) have been applied to data since 1974 to 2007. impulse response function (irf) calculation indicated that past and present consumption of chick...

development of financial markets as an important factor in the economic growth process always has been of interest to economists. the purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between regional financial development and economic growth. this study uses provincial annual data over the period 2000-2011 by using panel data technique. the panel co integration techniques have been used to te...

unemployment-inflation trade-off is known as philips curve. this relationship was first defined for england economy by professor philips since 1958. much development has been submitted by different economic schools about this innovation. in this paper, apart from dealing with the new-keynesians philips curve, the curve mentioned is estimated for iranian economy. in addition, we are going to com...