One of the critical design driving load cases for modern large onshore/offshore wind turbines is power production in extreme turbulence. According to the IEC 61400-1 edition 3 design standard, the normal production extreme loads are extrapolated and compared to the extreme loads obtained under extreme turbulence input. This study shows that using a probabilistic approach and the first order rel...

This paper presents a new and alternative method (in the context of urban drainage) for probabilistic hydrodynamical analysis of drainage systems in general and especially prediction of combined sewer overflow. Using a probabilistic shell it is possible to implement both input and parameter uncertainties on an application of the commercial urban drainage model MOUSE combined with the probabilis...

There are two commonly used reliability analysis methods of analytical methods: linear approximation First Order Reliability Method (FORM), and quadratic approximation Second Order Reliability Method (SORM), of the performance functions. The reliability analysis using FORM could be acceptable for mildly nonlinear performance functions, whereas the reliability analysis using SORM is usually nece...

Two efficient methods for time-dependent fatigue reliability analysis are proposed in this paper based on a random process representation of material fatigue properties and a nonlinear damage accumulation rule. The first method is developed by matching the first two central moments of the accumulated damage to a well-known probability distribution, thus facilitating direct analytical solution o...

In order to evaluate the reliability of turbine blades over a certain time period, a time-dependent reliability analysis model is developed in this paper for turbine blades in extreme wind loading. The extreme wind loading over a certain return period and the deterioration of the blade material are considered to investigate the time influence on the reliability of turbine blades. Only failure i...

This paper studies the use of sensitivities to quantify the extent to which individual airline departments (stakeholders) contribute to the incident of runway overrun. For that purpose, we present a model of the incident runway overrun. The incident model is based on the dynamics of aircraft and describes the functional relationship between contributing factors leading to the incident. The inci...

A general probabilistic fatigue crack growth prediction methodology for accurate and efficient damage prognosis is proposed in this paper. This methodology consists two major parts. First, the realistic random loading is transformed to an equivalent constant amplitude loading process based on a recently developed mechanism model. This transformation avoids the cycle-by-cycle calculation of fati...

in this paper, the nonlinear conjugate map based on the conjugate hasofer-lind and rackwitz- fiessler (chl-rf) method is applied to evaluate the reliability index using first order reliability method of the embedded noanocompsite beam, which is made from polymer reinforced with carbon nanotubs (cnts). the structure is simulated with timoshenko beam model. the mori-tanaka model is applied for ca...