We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We select the transformation of the oil price of Lee, Ni and Ratti (1995), based on a linear analysis of the relationship between output growth and the oil pri...

The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP. This method derives from the work of Rennison (2002), which suggests that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. The authors use this approach to estimate the two components of poten...

The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of entrepreneurship. We f...

This study examines the causal relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. Methodology is based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality relationship and the bounds testing (ARDL). Time-series data covering the period 19702005 for Malaysia, the study found, in the case of Malaysia there is no strong evidence of a bi-directional causality and long-run relationship between ...

E 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Article history: Received 15 November 2012 Received in revised form 25 January 2013 Accepted 29 January 2013 Available online xxxx JEL classification: C15 C32 G13 G15

7 Article history: 8 Received 15 November 2012 9 Received in revised form 25 January 2013 10 Accepted 29 January 2013 11 Available online xxxx 1234 15 JEL classification: 16 C15 17 C32 18 G13 19 G15 20

Yes, it makes a lot of sense. Using the Smets and Wouters (2007) model of the U.S. economy, we find that the role of the output gap should be equal to or even more important than that of annualized inflation when designing a simple loss function to represent household welfare. The high weight on the output gap is driven by several important characteristics in the estimated model, including a lo...

I investigate cointegrating relationships such that, even though the long-run attractors are assumed to be linear, the dynamics of the equilibrium errors depends on the business cycle. I postulate a Markov-switching common stochastic trends model to study both the short-run responses to permanent shocks and the e/ects of recessions in the long-run growth. I apply these 0ndings to explore the sh...

in this paper, asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuation (according to positive and negative shocks) on real output were investigated. in the meantime, the study of behaviour of real output growth in iran’s economy over the period 1338-1386 was done. in specification of the output growth equation, in spite of considering positive and negative shocks of exchange rate, the effects of other ...

This paper compares the cycles in UK sectoral output generated from both univariate and multivariate unobserved components models. Common trends and cycles are found among the sectors and it is found that these help to identify the cycles in the multivariate model. JEL Classi...cation: C32, E32.