We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics expectations for the United States other countries over postwar period. In our theory, long-run are endogenous. They driven by short-run surprises, way that depends on recent forecasting performance monetary policy. This distinguishes from common explanations properties inflation. Th...

A positive technology shock may lead to a rise or a fall in per capita hours, depending on how hours enter the empirical VAR model. We provide evidence that, independent of how hours enter the VAR, a positive technology shock leads to a weak response in nominal wage inflation, a modest decline in price inflation, and a modest rise in the real wage in the short-run and a permanent rise in the lo...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined st...

Search is embeded in an overlapping-generations model. Young people participate a centralized market and a decentralized market sequentially and olds only participates the centralized market. The demographic feature allows analytical tractability. In a series examples, positve inflation rates are Pareto optimal. JEL classification: E31

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...

The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast it has been argued that a Neo-Fisherian policy of setting an interest-rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning ar...

this paper reviews the relationship between inflation rate and minimum wage in iran’s economy over the 1969-2005. according to the economic literature, there is a narrow relationship between inflation rate and minimum wage. some economists believe in increased inflation due to minimum wage. the other group of economists considers the increased inflation as a cause for increasing minimum wage. t...

t his paper investigates the asymmetric behavior of inflation. we use logistic smooth transition autoregressive (lstar) model to characterize the regime-switching behavior of iran’s monthly inflation during the period may 1990 to december 2013. we find that there is a triple relationship between the inflation level, its fluctuations and persistence. the findings imply that the behavior of infla...

The KMG growth dynamics in Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) assume that wages, prices and quantities adjust sluggishly to disequilibria in labor and goods markets. This paper modifies the KMG model by introducing Steindlian features of capital accumulation and income distribution. The resulting KMGS(teindl) model replaces the neoclassical mediumand long-run features of the original KMG model by a ...

We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We operate the Kalman filter in reverse, beginning with observed forecasts, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the stochastic trend in inflation. The trend-cycle model with unobserved components is consistent with numerous ...