We conduct both an approximate Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and an exact Bayesian analysis to incorporate break date uncertainty of the mean growth rate into the trend-cycle decomposition of U.S. real GDP. Our results suggest a structural break in mean growth rate of U.S. real GDP in 1970s. Comparing to the models assuming fixed break date, we find higher uncertainty in the posterior density ...

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend e...

Programs TRAMO and SEATS, that contain an ARIMA-model-based methodology, are applied for seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation of the exports, imports, and balance of trade Japanese series. The programs are used in an automatic mode, and the results are found satisfactory. It is shown how the SEATS output can be used to discriminate among competing models. Finally, using the balance of...

background: mechanical torque limiting devices (mtlds) are necessary tools to control a peak torque and achieving target values of screw component of dental implants. due to probable effect of autoclaving and number of use on the accuracy of these devices, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of sterilization and number of use on the accuracy of friction-style mechanical torque limiting devi...

The chapter deals with parametric models for the measurement of the business cycle in economic time series. It presents univariate methods based on parametric trend–cycle decompositions and multivariate models featuring a Phillips type relationship between the output gap and inflation and the estimation of the gap using mixed frequency data. We finally address the issue of assessing the accurac...

Consider a one-way layout with one directional observation per factor level. Each observed direction is a unit vector in R measured with random error. Information accompanying the measurements suggests that the mean directions, normalized to unit length, follow a trend: the factor levels are ordinal and mean directions at nearby factor levels may be close. Measured positions of the paleomagneti...

The question of recovering a multiband signal from noisy observations motivates a model in which the multivariate data points consist of an unknown deterministic trend Ξ observed with multivariate Gaussian errors. A cognate random trend model suggests affine shrinkage estimators Ξ̂A and Ξ̂B for Ξ, which are related to an extended Efron-Morris estimator. When represented canonically, Ξ̂A performs c...