Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast horizon grows. Using analytical results we show that standard properties of o...

In this paper we consider the estimation of Markov models where the transition density is unknown. The approach we propose is the empirical characteristic function (ECF) estimation procedure with an approximate optimal weight function. The approximate optimal weight function is obtained through an Edgeworth/Gram-Charlier expansion of the logarithmic transition density of the Markov process. Bas...

This paper analyses the application of a switching volatility model to forecast the Ž . distribution of returns and to estimate the Value-at-Risk VaR of both single assets and portfolios. We calculate the VaR value for 10 Italian stocks and a number of portfolios based on these stocks. The calculated VaR values are also compared with the variance–coŽ . variance approach used by JP Morgan in Ris...

Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing methods for evaluating the accuracy of VaR models: the binomial, interval forecast and distribution forecast methods. Given the low power often exhibited by their correspond...

We consider a set of linear regression models that differ in their choice of regressors, and derive a method for inference that controls for the set of models under investigation. The method is based around an estimate of the distribution for a class of statistics, which can depend on two or more models. An example is the largest R2 over a set of regression models. The distribution will typical...

Fisher’s pivot functions (PFs) continue to dominate statistical inference and bootstrap literature, despite Efron and Hinkley and Royall’s attempts to inject robustness. Vinod uses Godambe’s pivot functions (GPFs) based on Godambe—Durbin estimating functions (EFs) to develop numerically computed GPF roots. Such GPF roots can fill a long-standing need in the bootstrap literature for robust pivot...

In banking the default behavior of the counterpart is of interest not only for the pricing of transactions under credit risk but also for the assessment of portfolio credit risk. We develop a test against the hypothesis that default intensities are constant over time within a homogeneous group of counterparts under investigation, e.g. a rating class. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type test builds on t...

This paper uses a functional coefficient regression to estimate time-varying betas and alphas in the conditional capital asset pricing model. Functional coefficient representation relaxes the strict assumptions on the structure of betas and alphas by combining the predictors into an index that best captures time variations in betas and alphas and estimates them nonparametrically. This index in ...

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate parameters and latent stochastic processes in the asymmetric stochastic volatility (SV) model, in which the Box-Cox transformation of the squared volatility follows an autoregressive Gaussian distribution and the marginal density of asset returns has heavytails. To test for the significance of the Box-Cox transformation...

Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo business survey contains information on the assessments of inventory stocks in manufacturing as well a...