We derive an upper limit of 3 mJy (95% conÐdence) for the Ñux density at 317 MHz of the Geminga pulsar (J0633]1746). Our results are based on 7 hours of fast-sampled VLA data, which we averaged synchronously with the pulse period using a period model based on CGRO/EGRET gamma-ray data. Our limit accounts for the fact that this pulsar is most likely subject to interstellar scintillations on a ti...

This paper addresses the problem of correcting visual registration errors in video-based augmented reality systems. Accurate visual registration between real and computergenerated objects in combined images is critically important for conveying the perception that both types of object occupy the same 3-dimensional (3D) space. Previous augmented reality systems concentrated on improving 3D coord...

This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that by acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms.

The paper considers the problem of modeling the lead-time demand for the multiple slow-moving inventory items in the case when the available demand history is very short, and a large percentage of items has only zero records. The Bayesian approach is used to overcome the mentioned problems with the past demand data: it is proposed to use the beta-binomial model to predict the lead-time demand p...

This paper proposes Bayesian forecasting in a vector autoregression using a democratic prior. This prior is chosen to match the predictions of survey respondents. In particular, the unconditional mean for each series in the vector autoregression is centered around long-horizon survey forecasts. Heavy shrinkage toward the democratic prior is found to give good real-time predictions of a range of...

In a probability-based reasoning system, Bayes’ theorem and its variations are often used to revise the system’s beliefs. However, if the explicit conditions and the implicit conditions of probability assignments are properly distinguished, it follows that Bayes’ theorem is not a generally applicable revision rule. Upon properly distinguishing belief revision from belief updating, we see that J...

Interventions often involve a sequence of decisions. For example, clinicians frequently adapt the intervention to an individual's outcomes. Altering the intensity and type of intervention over time is crucial for many reasons, such as to obtain improvement if the individual is not responding or to reduce costs and burden when intensive treatment is no longer necessary. Adaptive interventions ut...

Chambers and Quiggin (2000) have used state-contingent production theory to establish important results concerning economic behaviour in the presence of uncertainty, including problems of consumer choice, the theory of the firm, and principal-agent relationships. Empirical application of the state contingent approach has proved difficult, not least because most of the data needed for applying s...

In many manufacturing operations, a system may exhibit dynamic behavior before reaching a steady-state level. This is most frequently associated with a transition in production like a product style change or a grade change. During the transition phase, the output does not respond instantaneously to a change in input. However, there is typically some information about the past transition phase p...