This paper addresses current problems of democratic instability in continental Latin America, assuming that all its countries have been at least “minimalist” democracies during the years 2000–07. To identify essential factors leading to instability, it focuses on the countries’ most recent and acute political crises. It considers two periods in the post–cold war years: 1992–99 and 2000–07. The ...

Can we improve forecasts of currency crises by using a large number of predictors? Which economic variables are most important to predict currency crises? This paper evaluates the performance of traditional Leading Indicators and a new Diffusion Index (DI) method as Early Warning Systems to monitor the risk and forecast the likelihood of the recent currency crises in East-Asia. We find that, re...

Qian et al. (2010) (henceforth QRR) have assembled an impressively rich data set on external default, banking, and monetary crises. This paper is part of an ambitious project on placing crises in the proper historical perspective (e.g., Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). It is an extremely valuable research agenda, as much of modern sovereign debt literature has focused on recent (post 1980) episodes,...

Many organizational leaders have a laissez faire attitude toward the possibility of a crisis happening in their firm, despite the high probability that every business leader and every organization will experience a crisis of some significance. Consequently, leaders are underprepared not only for “managing” crisis situations when they occur, but also—and more important—for leading organizations ...

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES More than 30% of patients with serious mental illness in the United Kingdom now receive all their health care solely from primary care. This study explored the process of managing acute mental health crises from the dual perspective of patients and primary care health professionals. METHODS Eighteen focus groups involving 45 patients, 39 general practitioners, and ei...

This study examines the concepts of conflicts and crises and their antecedents in Nigeria. It makes a clarification of the causes of crises in Nigeria due mainly to poverty and unjust allocation of the available resources. An attempt is made to identify strategies adopted by Nigerian government on crises resolution and their shortcomings. The study finally presents ways forward towards a better...

Recent crises in emerging markets have generated a fundamental re-appraisal of theoretical models of international capital flows. It is now generally recognised that crises have occurred in circumstances that cannot be explained by first generation models of speculative attacks that seemed quite acceptable only a few years ago. First generation models (Krugman 1979; Flood and Garber 1980) and t...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of economic growth and controls via a treatment type model for possible sample selection governing the o...

We review the literature on the effects of aggregate crises on human biological outcomes. The crises we consider are acute, severe, and unexpected negative events occurring at the population level: recessions, famines, epidemics, natural and environmental disasters, and wars. Our review of the literature suggests that the effects of aggregate crises on human biology are pervasive and longlasting.

This paper suggests, first, that a simple theoretical framework is useful in explaining financial crises in emerging economies. Second, it reviews the East Asian financial crises of 1997-98 . Third, the paper examines the origins of Argentina’s crisis of 2001-02. Fourth, it presents a comparative analysis of both crises, highlighting their similarities and differences. Finally, the conclusions ...