Autoregressive models are among the best performing neural density estimators. We describe an approach for increasing the flexibility of an autoregressive model, based on modelling the random numbers that the model uses internally when generating data. By constructing a stack of autoregressive models, each modelling the random numbers of the next model in the stack, we obtain a type of normaliz...

We model the time series of the S&P500 index by a combined process, the AR+GARCH process, where AR denotes the autoregressive process which we use to account for the short-range correlations in the index changes and GARCH denotes the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process which takes into account the long-range correlations in the variance. We study the AR+GARCH process ...

This paper deals with the identification of MIMO cement mill process using Non-linear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) models with wavelet network. NARX identification, based on a sequence of input/output samples, collected from a real cement mill process is used for black-box modeling of non-linear cement mill process. The NARX model is considered for two inputs and two outputs of s...

We study the autocorrelation structure and the spectral density function of aggregates from a discrete-time process. The underlying discrete-time process is assumed to be a stationary AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving-Average (ARFIMA) process, after suitable number of differencing if necessary. We derive closed-form expressions for the limiting autocorrelation function and the norma...

Failure to allow for autocorrelation of the disturbances in a regression model can lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates, particularly if the model is autoregressive. While consistent estimation methods are available which allow for autocorrelation, estimation is usually much easier when there is some assurance that autocorrelation is absent. In pursuit of such assurance the prese...

A matrix is called a multiple resultant matrix associated to two matrix polynomials when it becomes singular if and only if the two matrix polynomials have at least one common eigenvalue. In this paper a new multiple resultant matrix is introduced. It concerns the Fisher information matrix (FIM) of a stationary vector autoregressive and moving average time series process (VARMA). The two matrix...

Empirical volatility studies have discovered nonstationary, long-memory dynamics in the volatility of the stock market and foreign exchange rates. This highly persistent, infinite variance—but still mean reverting—behavior is commonly found with nonparametric estimates of the fractional differencing parameter d, for financial volatility. In this paper, a fully parametric Bayesian estimator, rob...

Autoregressive models are commonly employed to analyze empirical time series. In practice, however, any autoregressive model will only be an approximation to reality and in order to achieve a reasonable approximation and allow for full generality the order of the autoregression, h say, must be allowed to go to infinity with T , the sample size. Although results are available on the estimation o...

In myoelectric prostheses design, it is normally assumed that the necessary control information can be extracted from the surface myoelectric signals. In the pattern classification paradigm for controlling myoelectric prosthesis, the autoregressive (AR) model coefficients are generally considered an efficient and robust feature set. However, no formal statistical methodologies or tests are repo...