Abstract: For regression problems that involve many potential predictors, the Bayesian variable selection (BVS) method is a powerful tool, which associates each model with its posterior probabilities, and achieves superb prediction performance through Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Two challenges of using such models are, specifying a suitable prior, and computing posterior quantities for infe...

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating. Statistical approaches to wind forecasting offer two particular challenges: the distribution of wind speeds is highly skewed, and wind observations are reported to the nearest whole knot...