Summary. Time dynamics are often ignored in causal modelling. Clearly, causality must operate in time and we show how this corresponds to a mechanistic, or system, understanding of causality. The established counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects depend on an ability to manipulate the mediator which may not hold in practice, and we argue that a mechanistic view may be better....

his study examined the long-run relationship between Nigerian exports and imports between 1960 and 2014. Exports and imports were disaggregated into oil and non-oil components. The application of the Johansen, Bound testing and the Hansen parameter instability test cointegration techniques revealed that Nigerian exports and imports at the aggregate and disaggregated level are cointegrated with ...

Does immigration generate jobs in an MSA, or do employment opportunities entice immigrant inflows to an MSA? Is immigration responsible for higher unemployment, or do foreign-born inflows cause increases in self-employment that lead to improvement in labor market conditions? The causal relationship between immigrants, job growth and unemployment is a politically and economically salient subject...

Rare hepatotoxicity has been ascribed to drugs and dietary supplements (DDS), but a vigorous causality evaluation using a quantitative approach has not always been performed.1-6 Causality assessment is crucial in face of incomplete documentation of cases; the failure of exclusion of other causes for the observed liver disease; and the co-medication with other chemically defined drugs as well as...

Some recent studies of the relationship between investment (or saving) and growth have found an absence of positive causality from the latter to the former. This finding poses a puzzle for growth theory and relies on groups of countries obeying a constant growth equation for its robustness. In this paper I investigate the causality from investment to GDP using postwar time-series data from the ...

This paper examines government expenditure convergence within the expanded European Union. Except for a few cases convergence was generally not validated for government consumption, transfers, subsidies nor for their aggregate, all expressed in constant real per capita terms. Neither was any long run equilibrium relationship found between these categories of expenditures and GDP. Causality test...

The study attempts to test a hypothesis and explore some additional empirical evidences of a causal relationship between International Tourist Arrivals, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic Growth (GDP). Although tourism has been regarded as one of the most dynamic economic industries in the world, the previous studies of the causality between three variables are exceptionally rare. In ...

Tourism has become an important economic activity in all the countries of the world. It creates various direct, indirect and induced effects in the economy. This paper attempts to confirm empirically about the positive impact of tourism in Nepal. It is based on Nepalese data of foreign exchange earnings from tourism and gross domestic product for the period between FY 1974/75 and 2009/10. Co-in...

The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run...