OBJECTIVES We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. METHODS Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-r...

Traditional crash count models, such as the Poisson and Negative Binomial models, do not account for the temporal correlation of crash data. In reality, crashes that occur in close proximity in time are likely to share unobserved effects which may have been excluded from the model. If the temporal correlation of crash data is ignored, the estimated parameters could be less precise and biased. T...

OBJECTIVE Signalized intersections are accident-prone areas especially for rear-end crashes due to the fact that the diversity of the braking behaviors of drivers increases during the signal change. The objective of this article is to improve knowledge of the relationship between rear-end crashes occurring at signalized intersections and a series of potential traffic risk factors classified by ...

This study further examined the use of regression models for developing crash modification factors (CMFs), specifically focusing on the misspecification in the link function. The primary objectives were to validate the accuracy of CMFs derived from the commonly used regression models (i.e., generalized linear models or GLMs with additive linear link functions) when some of the variables have no...

This paper studies the factors affecting injury severities involving motorcyclists of different age groups (under 25, 25-55, 55 and above) based on random parameter logit model. Data collected from motorcycle crashes in UK between 2017 2020 are utilized. The motorcyclist severity outcomes categorized as follows: minor injury, severe fatal injury. results likelihood ratio tests showed that trans...

In this paper we propose a test statistic to discriminate between models with finite variance and models with infinite variance. The test statistic is the ratio of the sample standard deviation and the sample interquartile range. Both asymptotic and finite sample properties of the test statistic are discussed. We show that the test has good power properties against infinite-variance distributio...

In this paper we propose a test statistic to discriminate between models with nite variance and models with in nite variance. The test statistic is the ratio of the sample standard deviation and the sample interquartile range. Both asymptotic and nite sample properties of the test statistic are discussed. We show that the test has good power properties against in nite-variance distributions and...

In risk analysis of highway safety, severe crashes with injuries and fatalities are more emphasized because of their significant human and economic loss potential. In Wisconsin from 1999 to 2006, 4,919 crashes with injuries and fatalities occurred on highways in all adverse weather conditions: rain, fog, snow, sleet, and wind (3). Of these crashes, 1,805, approximately 37%, were crashes with in...

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets ha...