One of the essential characteristics of a decision-making situation is the amount and quality of information that the decision maker has available at the onset of the problem. Luce and Raiffa [1958, p.13] developed a three-tiered classification of decision making based on the amount of knowledge, or information, possessed by the decision maker. If full knowledge regarding options, outcomes, and...

Though traditional DSS provide strong data management, modelling and visualisation capabilities for the decision maker, they do not explicitly support scenario management appropriately. Systems that purport to support scenario planning are complex and difficult to use and do not fully support all phases of scenario management. This research presents a life cycle approach for scenario management...

As decision makers, we often need to find solutions to problems that we understand only approximately. For these difficult situations, we consider a model-based approach for a type of analysis, which we term candle lighting analysis, which suggests actions we might take to create new and better options for us. This paper shows how a space of actions can be searched by a genetic algorithm, autom...

An informed advisor wishes to convey her valuable information to an uninformed decision maker with identical preferences. Thus she has a current incentive to truthfully reveal her information. But if the decision maker thinks that the advisor might be biased in favor of one decision and the advisor does not wish to be thought to be biased, the advisor has a reputational incentive to lie. If the...

The on-line shortest path problem is considered under various models of partial monitoring. Given a weighted directed acyclic graph whose edge weights can change in an arbitrary (adversarial) way, a decision maker has to choose in each round of a game a path between two distinguished vertices such that the loss of the chosen path (defined as the sum of the weights of its composing edges) be as ...

This paper presents a preference-based method to handle problems with a large number of objectives. With an increase in number of objectives the complexity of the problem rises exponentially and it becomes difficult for evolutionary multiobjective techniques to produce the entire front. In this paper an evolutionary multi-objective procedure is hybridized with preference information from the de...

The subjectiveness of the performance assessment can not be avoided. criteria determined for with human cognition is phenomenon. This condition being a challenge researcher to develop technique objectively. method new approach determine indicator involving employee result in realistic assessment. model utilized respondent opinion as decision-maker relevance and sub-criteria target achievemen...

Various modern decision theories seek to capture the intuition behind Keynes‟s conception of evidential weight. Keynes was nevertheless hesitant about the practical relevance of weight in the process of rational decision making because of the „stopping problem‟ of finding a rational principle to decide where to stop the process of acquiring information in forming a probability judgment before m...

Scoring rules for eliciting expert predictions of random variables are usually developed assuming that experts derive utility only from the quality of their predictions (e.g., score awarded by the rule, or payoff in a prediction market). We study a more realistic setting in which (a) the principal is a decision maker and will take a decision based on the expert’s prediction; and (b) the expert ...