This chapter is concerned with modeling the economic linkages among countries. Although there are by now a number of multicountry macroeconometric models in existence, it seems safe to say with respect to the treatment of capital Rows and exchange rates that econometric work has not kept pace with theoretical developments. Since Mundell’s pioneering theoretical work (1968) in the 1960s. the pot...

We propose a method for modifying a given density forecast in a way that incorporates the information contained in theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor models or Bayesian VARs, by ensuring that they satisfy theoretical restrictions given for example by Euler equations or Taylor rules. The method yields a new...

1Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria 2Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Vienna, Austria 3World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria 4Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austria 5Research Group Macroeconomics and Economic Poli...

We measure the information content of monthly analyst consensus forecasts for one-year-forward earnings per share (EPS) based on two well-established price discovery measures drawn from the area of market micro-structure research. Employing a 36-year sample of large American companies listed in the S&P 100 Index, we compute (i) Hasbrouck’s information shares and (ii) Gonzalo and Granger’s commo...

This paper provides a concise review of a broad set of concepts, models and estimation issues in the field of stochastic frontier analysis. The goal is to provide practitioners with a quick guide to some key ideas. The review is restricted to single-output models estimated by econometric methods. Among the conceptual issues are the interpretation and the paths to reduce inefficiency. The modell...

We analyse post-war Dutch migration to New Zealand. We document that history, reflect on analytical and econometric modelling and then combine a sample of Dutch migrants in New Zealand with a representative sample of Dutch in The Netherlands to estimate wage equations and the determinants of the migration decision. We use the results for ex post evaluation of the migration decision. JEL classif...

In many applications it is necessary to use a simple and therefore highly misspecified econometric model as the basis for decision-making. We propose an approach to developing a possibly misspecified econometric model that will be used as the beliefs of an objective expected utility maximiser. A discrepancy between model and ‘truth’ is introduced that is interpretable as a measure of the model’...

More than half of all hydrocarbon reservoirs are Naturally Fractured Reservoirs (NFRs), in which production forecasting is a complicated function of fluid flow in a fracture-matrix system. Modelling of fluid flow in NFRs is challenging due to formation heterogeneity and anisotropy. Stress sensitivity and depletion effect on already-complex reservoir permeability add to the sophistication. Horiz...

This paper has dual goals. On the one hand, it attempts a review of recent econometric work on the U.S. automobile industry. Three studies of this industry are reviewed, compared, and contrasted. These are studies by Koujianou Goldberg [Koujianou Goldberg, P., 1993, U.S. trade policy implications of a new approach to modelling the demand for automobiles, mimeo (Princeton University)], Feenstra ...