The aim of this paper is to discuss the hedging techniques that a company based in an emerging market country can use to hedge the risk associated with jet fuel or kerosene. The company can be an airline company or a market intermediary offering contracts on this important commodity. An empirical analysis reveals two main directions for minimum risk hedging: one is to cross-hedge directly the c...

Using novel real-time data on a broad set of economic fundamentals for …ve major US dollar exchange rates over the recent ‡oat, we employ a predictive procedure that allows the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals to evolve over time in a very general fashion. Our key …ndings are that: (i) the well-documented weak out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models may be c...

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premia that can explain the forward bias puzzle – the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premia arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition we impose on the relation between the term structure of interest rates and exchange rates, and they compensate for both currency risk and interes...

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed. Two of the models fail to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not re...

This paper examines the issues related to the competition between two currencies in an agent-based computational economic model. The economic environment is a two-country overlapping generations economy with no restrictions on foreign currency holdings. Governments of both countries nance their de cits via seignorage. Agents make decisions about their savings and portfolio decisions. They use t...

We propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test for testing the null hypothesis of unit-root processes against the alternative that allows a proportion of units to be generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes and a remaining non-zero proportion to be generated by unit root processes. The proposed test is simple to apply and accommodates cross section dependence. Monte Carlo sim...

This article examines how differently the same dealer quotes in the inter-dealer and customer foreign exchange markets that have different market structures. The model first predicts that customer spreads are generally wider than inter-dealer ones due to less transparency in the customer market. The model also predicts that since customers are believed to be less informed than dealers, the diff...

In the aftermath of the Taper Tantrum episode, the Central Bank of Brazil announced a major program of intervention in foreign exchange markets on August 2013, with daily sales of FX futures settling in domestic currency swaps that provided insurance against a depreciation of the real. We analyze the effect of that program on the level and volatility of the exchange rate using a synthetic contr...

This paper addresses the following issue: given a set of daily observations on an asset (historical opening, closing, high and low prices), how should one go about estimating the asset’s volatility? We use high-frequency data on very liquid assets to construct daily realized volatility series, which enables us to treat volatility as observed rather than latent. We then compare the empirical per...

A recent body of empirical research has documented a strong association between the level and volatility of the RER and economic growth. This research has relied on a variety of econometric techniques applied to large cross-country data sets. Although the documented positive effects of both RER competitiveness and stability on growth appear to be robust, it is still unclear what the mechanisms ...