We analyze the statistical dependence structure of the S&P 500 constituents in the 4-year period from 2007 to 2010 using intraday data from the New York Stock Exchange’s TAQ database. Instead of using a given parametric copulawith a predetermined shape, we study the empirical pairwise copula directly. We find that the shape of this copula resembles the Gaussian copula to somedegree, but exhibit...

Progress in ocean wave forecasting is described in the context of the fundamental law for wave prediction: the energy balance equation. The energy balance equation gives the rate of change of the sea state caused by adiabatic processes such as advection, and by the physical source functions of the generation of ocean waves by wind, the dissipation due to whitecapping and the nonlinear four-wave...

In an exchange economy under uncertainty populated by multiple consumers, we how the heterogeneity in the individual consumers’ subjective beliefs affect the representative consumer’s utility function. We derive a formula that indicates that the more heterogeneous the individual consumers’ beliefs are, the higher probabilities the representative consumer’s belief attaches to extreme events that...

Due to the constantly evolving nature of Web-based Education (WBE) it is often difficult for educators to understand the issues, challenges, impact, and effort required to introduce WBE innovations. This lack of knowledge can contribute to the limited adoption and less than successful implementation of WBE innovations. This paper draws on an aspect of innovation diffusion theory to propose a mo...

We present a semi-supervised online method for novelty detection and evaluate its performance for radio astronomy time series data. Our approach uses adaptive eigenbases to combine 1) prior knowledge about uninteresting signals with 2) online estimation of the current data properties to enable highly sensitive and precise detection of novel signals. We apply the method to the problem of detecti...

The tragic attacks of September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception ...

C. Arnaboldi a,F. T. Avignone III b, J. Beeman c,d,M. Barucci e, M. Balata f,C. Brofferio a, C. Bucci f,S. Cebrian g, R. J. Creswick b,S. Capelli a, L. Carbone a,O. Cremonesi a, A. de Ward h,E. Fiorini a, H. A. Farach b,G. Frossati h, A. Giuliani i,D. Giugni a, P. Gorla a,E. E. Haller c,d, I. G. Irastorza g,R. J. McDonald c, A. Morales g,E. B. Norman c, P. Negri a, A. Nucciotti a, M. Pedretti i...