Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...

In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating common factors of CPI sub-aggregates into forecasting models increases the accuracy of forecasts of inflation. We extract factors by both static and dynamic factor models and then embed them in ARMA and VAR models. Using quarterly data of Iran’s CPI and its sub-aggregates, the models are estimated over 1990:2 to 2008:2 and out of sample ...

Prediction of stock market trends has been an area of great interest both to researchers attempting to uncover the information hidden in the stock market data and for those who wish to profit by trading stocks. The extremely nonlinear nature of the stock market data makes it very difficult to design a system that can predict the future direction of the stock market with sufficient accuracy. Thi...

We propose novel smart forecasting models for Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) that combine sky image processing with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) optimization schemes. The forecasting models, which were developed for over 6 months of intra-minute imaging and irradiance measurements, are used to predict 1 min average DNI for specific time horizons of 5 and 10 min. We discuss optimal models for...

portfolio theory assumes that investors accept risk. this means thatin the equal rate of return on the two assets, the assets were chosenthat have a lower risk level. modern portfolio theory is accepted byinvestors who believe that they are not cope with the market. sothey keep many different types of securities in order to access theoptimum efficiency rate that is close to the rate of return o...

1. PREFACE 'Consider mechanically integrating judgmental and statistical forecasts instead of making judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts …Judgmental adjustment (by humans) of (automatically generated statistical forecasts) is actually the least effective way to combine statistical and judgmental forecasts … (because) judgmental adjustment can introduce bias 1 (Mathews and Diamantopo...

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature i...

(G) and observed discharge (Q), whereas the other data-driven model, ANN-Ensemble (ANN-E), and the two conceptual models, HBV and GR4J, use forecasted meteorological inputs (P and PET), whereby we employ ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts. We compared low flow forecasts without any meteorological forecasts as input (ANN-I) and five different cases of seasonal meteorological forcing: (1)...

This is part of a series of weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of forecasts initiated following assimilation of observations for Week 1 (i.e. the forecast begins January 6, 2013) for municipalities in the United States. These forecasts were performed on January 11, 2013. Results from forecasts initiated the six previous weeks (Weeks 47...