This paper undertakes a cross-country study on the price-output gap relationship for selected industrial countries (Japan, the U.S., Germany, the U.K. and Canada). The estimation results show that the price-output gap relationship in these countries can be classified into two categories: (1) a Phillips Curve-type (in which the output gap fluctuation affects the inflation rate); and (2) a NAIRU ...

This paper shows that the optimal monetary policies recommended by New Keynesian models still imply a large amount of inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority adopts the optimal policy. When the monetary policy rules are modified to include some weight on a price path, the economy achieves equilibria with substa...

A number of recent papers have explored monetary policy options, including inflation targeting and inflation forecast targeting (notably Svensson (1999a, 1999b, 2000)) and price level targeting (Wolman 2000, Batini and Yates 1999, Blinder 1999). Most papers explore “optimal” monetary policy in the context of a single model. However, a number of conclusions made in the literature depend strongly...

In this paper, stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new macroeconomic model, FPS, are used to examine the issue of which price index should monetary policy stabilise in a small open economy. Under the class of policy rules considered, targeting a measure of domestic inflation, which does not include the direct effects of exchange rate movements on the price of imported go...

Are the recessionary consequences of oil-price shocks due to oil-price shocks themselves or to contractionary monetary policies that arise in response to inflation concerns engendered by rising oil prices? Can systematic monetary policy be used to alleviate the consequences of oil shocks on the economy? This paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition in which o...

The relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) is widely believed to be positive and stable. Using disaggregated CPI data for the U.S. and Japan, however, this study finds that the relationship is neither linear nor stable over time. The overall relationship is approximately U-shaped and symmetric around a certain threshold: a positive correlation on one side but a trad...

Concentrating on the period of quantitative easing in Japan, this paper reexamines the correlation between the asymmetry of sectoral relative-price changes and the aggregate inflation rate. This correlation is widely interpreted as evidence that short-run inflation is determined by supply-side factors; however, we study whether, in addition to the inflation rate, monetary environment and aggreg...

A reform of the Eurosystem's inferior monetary-policy strategy is increasingly urgent, as noted by a number of observers. For instance, a recent extensive CEPR report finds the that the prominent first pillar of the Eurosystem's strategy, the money-growth indicator, " looks increasingly ridiculous, giving perverse signals that the ECB probably ignores " , and that it is " flawed beyond repair–b...

In recent years, a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky-price models to capture inflation dynamics. These models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen; and, moreover, are perceived to be robust to the Lucas critique in a way that earlier eco...

Crude oil is one of the most necessitated worldwide required commodities. Any slight fluctuation in crude oil prices can have both direct and indirect influence on the economy of the countries. The unpredictability of crude oil prices forced many companies away from the competition and it influence the stock market and many other macroeconomic variables (inflation, GDP, Import bill etc). Crude ...