Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant intraseasonal wave phenomenon influencing extreme weather and climate worldwide. Realistic simulations accurate predictions of MJO genesis are cornerstones for successfully monitoring, forecasting, managing meteorological disasters 3–4 weeks in advance. Nevertheless, processes emerging precursor signals an eastward-propagating event r...

1 Two Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, observed during October and November 2011 in 2 the equatorial Indian Ocean during the DYNAMO field campaign, are simulated in a small-3 domain cloud-resolving model using parameterized large-scale dynamics. Three 4 parameterizations of large-scale dynamics-the conventional weak temperature gradient (WTG) 5 approximation, vertical mode based spectral...

This study uses Dynamics of theMadden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) shipborne [Research Vessel (R/V) Roger Revelle] radar and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) datasets to investigate MJO-associated convective systems in specific organizational modes [mesoscale convective system (MCS) versus sub-MCS and linear versus nonlinear]. TheRevelle radar sampledmany ‘‘cli...

We assessed the ability of Bureau Meteorology’s ACCESS-S1 dynamical forecast system to simulate and predict high rainfall extremes for each season over Australia, especially focusing on role Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Using retrospective forecasts period 1990–2012, we show that simulated observed modulation extreme weekly mean by phase MJO reasonably well; however changes in probabilities...

Despite recent advancements in numerical models, prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains a major challenge weather and climate modeling. This study explores pathways for improving MJO through systematic investigation effects model resolution moist physics on simulations Part 1, followed by atmosphere-ocean coupling 2. The Unified Wave Interface—Coupled Model (UWIN-CM) experime...

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity has a significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. However, it is still challenging problem for present-day models to simulate different types of ENSO events with realistic features simultaneously. In this paper, tropical stochastic skeleton model the interactions among wind bursts Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Niño, Wal...

This study statistically investigates the timing and underlying processes of the shallow-to-deep convective transition (SDT) associated with Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) initiation over the Indian Ocean. Results show that SDT periods have a median value of 8–10 days with a wide spectrum of 2–20 days. SDTs lasting 10–20 days occurred nearly 50% of the time, consistent with gradual tropospher...

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-propagating equatorial disturbance most active during the boreal winter, dominates atmospheric intraseasonal variability in the tropical Eastern Hemisphere. The MJO involves cyclic patterns of suppressed convection and intense rainfall, has a period ranging from 20-100 days, and is manifested in numerous atmospheric and oceanic variables. This st...

A covariance decomposition method is applied to a monthly global precipitation dataset decompose the interannual variability in seasonal mean time series into an unpredictable component related “weather noise” and potentially predictable slowly varying boundary forcing low-frequency internal dynamics. The “potential predictability” then defined as fraction of total variance accounted for by lat...