In this paper we propose a sequential testing approach for a structural change in the variance of a time series, which amounts to a procedure with a controlled asymptotic size as we repeat the test. Our approach builds on that taken in Chu, Stinchcombe & White (1996) for structural change in the parameters of a linear regression model. We provide simulation evidence to examine the empirical siz...

This paper examines some of the characteristics of the foreign exchange market in the 1920s floating period. Nominal returns appear to exhibit properties consistent with asset prices on modern more well-organized financial markets; i.e. they appear to be well described by martingales and possess persistent time dependent heteroscedasticity. In order to deal with the extreme kurtosis in the exch...

abstract in this research, the comparative advantage of cereals including: wheat, barley and corn in cities of kerman, bardsir and baft was investigated by using domestic resource cost (drc), social cost benefit (scb) and effective protection coefficient (epc) index during 2005-2006 and effect of exchange rate changes, price changes and products costs on comparative advantage, were investigated...

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, exte...

We build a monetary model to show how expected revaluations lead to the instability of a pegged exchange rate regime. This model assumes current account convertibility and some degree of capital control, and fundamentally sound domestic policies and economy, as is the case in China. The model demonstrates that market-oriented interest rates can act as an automatic stabilizer to ease revaluation...

Governments in emerging economies have pursued real exchange rate targeting through Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rules that link the nominal depreciation rate to either the deviation of the real exchange rate from its long run level or to the difference between the domestic and the foreign CPI-inflation rates. In this paper we disentangle the conditions under which these rules may lead to endo...

This paper examines the role of collateralized money supply for short-run macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. We apply a simple sticky price model, where the central bank supplies money in exchange for securities that are discounted with the nominal interest rate. The central assumption is that only government bonds are eligible as collateral. If they are dominated in rate of return by pr...

a r t i c l e i n f o This paper investigates the sources of exchange rate fluctuations when monetary policy follows a Taylor rule interest rate reaction function. We first present a simple dynamic exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals which is triangular in the long-run impacts of shocks to the output market, the interest rate differential, and the Taylor rule. We then proceed to a...