Are unpopular ministers more likely to be forced out of office than their colleagues in Cabinet? This study examines the relationship between ministers’ unpopularity and duration office. By examining opinion polls on popularity Denmark period 1978 2019, analysis shows that when Danish Prime Ministers choose dismiss ministers, they who are relatively less popular Cabinet. Statistical analyses sh...

A mathematical model of Athenian democracy (594–322 BC) is considered. Indicators of popularity, universality, and goodness are introduced to evaluate single political leaders, the Assembly, the Council of 500, and magistrates. The popularity is a spatial characteristic of representativeness, the average percentage of the population whose opinion is represented on a number of questions. The uni...

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they d...

Prediction markets and other reward mechanisms based on proper scoring rules can elicit accurate predictions about future events with public outcomes. However, many questions of public interest do not always have a clear answer. For example, facts such as the effects of raising or lowering interest rates can never be publicly verified, since only one option will be implemented. In this paper we...

OBJECTIVE To examine how a government committed to a voluntary approach was forced by an effective advocacy coalition to introduce comprehensive smoke-free legislation. METHODS A diary was kept from the start of the campaign in 2003, backed up by journal and press articles, and information downloaded from the web. Regular public opinion polls were also carried out to supplement government sur...

In this article, we explore scientists' freedom of expression in the context authoritarian populism. Our particular case for analysis is Finland, where right-wing populist Finns Party entered government first time 2015. More recently, after leaving 2017, party has been most popular opinion polls 2021. We illustrate current threats to Finnish researchers' using their responses on three surveys, ...

The reason for this review is to determine the impact of authoritative culture and responsibility on commitment implementation in Bank Mandiri Jember Area employees. Researchers used a purposive testing strategy 35 employees at Operation & Support Unit Area. This uses quantitative with an explanatory research approach. study technique data collection using overview opinion polls, documentat...

While the polls have been the most trusted source for election predictions for decades, in the recent presidential election they were called inaccurate and biased. How inaccurate were the polls in this election and can social media beat the polls as an accurate election predictor? Polls from several news outlet and sentiment analysis on Twitter data were used, in conjunction with the results of...