Remarkably little advice has been offered in the way of helping management develop appropriate strategies to cope with different forms of uncertainty. In an effort to fill this gap, the present article combines extant research from economics and strategy to identify two broad classes of uncertainty and the generic strategies that are appropriate to handle each class of uncertainty. We point out...

We study the problem of elicitation of subjective beliefs of an agent when the beliefs are ambiguous (the set of beliefs is a non-singleton set) and the agent’s preference exhibits ambiguity aversion; in particular, as represented by α-maxmin preferences. We construct a direct revelation mechanism such that truthful reporting of beliefs is the agent’s unique best response. The mechanism uses kn...

This paper investigates the optimality of sharp incentives in contracts where output prices are set at the time of contracting but are random in nature. It shows that when prices are specified with error, schemes involving sharp incentives might result in substantial deviations from first-best output levels. The randomness of prices creates arbitrage opportunities that are exploited by agents p...

Machina andSchmeidler show that the probabilistic sophistication can be obtained in anAnscombe– Aumann setting without imposing expected utility bymaintaining stochastic monotonicity and adding a new axiom loosely analogous to Savage’s P4. This analogous axiom, however, is very strong. In this note, we obtain probabilistic sophistication using a weaker (and more natural) analog of Savage’s P4. ...

Savage motivated his sure thing principle by arguing that, whenever an act would be preferred if an event obtains and preferred if that event did not obtain, it should be preferred overall. The ability to decompose and recompose decision problems in this way has normative appeal. It does not, however, require the full separability embodied in Savage's axiom. We formulate a weaker axiom that suf...

There are typically multiple equilibrium outcomes in the Crawford-Sobel (CS) model of strategic information transmission. This note identifies a simple condition on equilibrium payoffs, called NITS, that selects among CS equilibria. Under a commonly used regularity condition, only the equilibrium with the maximal number of induced actions satisfies NITS. We discuss various justifications for NI...

This paper analyzes optimal wage contracting assuming agents are not subjective expected utility maximizers but are, instead, ambiguity (or uncertainty) averse decision makers who maximize Choquet expected utility. We show that such agents will choose not to include any indexation coverage in their wage contracts even when inflation is uncertain, unless the perceived inflation uncertainty is hi...

We study the optimal design of incentive contracts for experts in different collusion environments, and explore implications for the organization of delegated expertise. We consider a principal relying on experts to gather and report two signals about a project’s value. The principal can have a single expert gather both signals or two experts gather one signal each. We show that absent collusio...

We analyze a game theoretic model of social learning about a consumption good with endogenous timing and heterogeneous accuracy of private information. We show that if individuals value their reputation for the degree to which they are informed, this reduces the incentive to learn by observing others and exacerbates the incentive to consume the good before others, i.e., to attempt to be an “opi...

Global climate change is rife with uncertainties. Yet, we can expect to resolve much of this uncertainty in the next 100 years or so. Therefore, current actions should reflect the value of flexibility. Nevertheless, most models of climate change, particularly game-theoretic models, abstract from uncertainty. Additionally, most analysis of climate change abstracts completely from the idea that t...