In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in realtime, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow ...

This paper is concerned with a semiparametric Bayesian framework for estimating quantile treatment effects. A general and flexible model is specified using a generalization of the Pólya urn scheme. An exact Bayesian analysis is carried out by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. The proposed techniques are illustrated by estimating the effect of participation in the 401(k) retirement pr...

This paper examines whether receipt of an RSA grant has a causal impact on plant TFP. To tackle the problem of self-selection into the treatment group, propensity score matching is employed. In order to control for the endogeneity of other variables in the model, estimations are performed using the system GMM estimator. The results show that for low technology manufacturing, receipt of an RSA g...

Using a long panel of roll call voting data, I find that “flip-flopping” senators face significant electoral costs when changing positions. In models of electoral competition, as the costs to candidates changing position approach zero, the equilibrium prediction is the convergence of platforms. Such convergence is at odds with empirical observation. Using a dynamic, structural model of candidat...

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results ...

This paper attempts to explain several empirical findings regarding religion. The main one is between religion and the fear of death. Some empirical evidence indicates moderately religious individuals fear death more than either atheists or extremely religious individuals. The model also explains the positive relationship often found between religious activity (e.g. church attendance) and age. ...

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in real-time, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effect are stronger when agents allow ...

The standard state-spaces of asymmetric information preclude non-trivial forms of unawareness (Modica and Rustichini, 1994, Dekel, Lipman and Rustichini, 1998). We introduce a generalized state-space model that allows for non-trivial unawareness among several individuals, and which satisfies strong properties of knowledge as well as all the desiderata on unawareness proposed this far in the lit...

By employing a model with international trade costs and imperfect competition, in which a domestic firm serves both the domestic market and the foreign market, we show that intraindustry trade compared to intersectoral trade is globally, but not mutually, welfare improving. When also foreign firms become active, competition strengthens but domestic welfare declines, because domestic consumers h...

Speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently delivers better welfare outcomes than flexible inflation targeting or flexible price level targeting in empirical New Keynesian models when policymakers lack the ability to commit to future policies. Even if the policymaker can commit under an inflation targeting s...