This paper presents a regime-switching model of the yield curve with two states. One is a normal state, the other is a zero-bound state that represents the case when the monetary policy target rate is at its zero lower bound for a prolonged period. The model delivers estimates of the time-varying probability of exiting the zero-bound state, and it outperforms standard threeand four-factor term ...

This paper examines the interaction between default risk and interest-rate risk in determining the term structure of credit default swap spreads at different industry sectors and credit rating classes. The paper starts with a parsimonious three-factor interest-rate dynamic term structure and projects the credit spread at each industry sector and rating class to these interest-rate factors while...

This study examines the performance of the S&P 100 implied volatility as a forecast of future stock market volatility. The results indicate that the implied volatility is an upward biased forecast, but also that it contains relevant information regarding future volatility. The implied volatility dominates the historical volatility rate in terms of ex ante forecasting power, and its forecast err...

The paper presents a bivariate SVAR model including growth rates of industrial production and of stock prices. Imposing a long-run restriction à la Blanchard and Quah (1989) that excludes long-run influences of the stock market on real activity allows to decompose stock prices in a fundamental and a nonfundamental component. The results of the forecast error variance decompositions as well as o...

We build and estimate a recursive utility equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates that prices consistently all risk factors that affect bonds. We contrast it with an arbitrage-free model, where prices of risk are estimated freely without preference constraints. In both models, nominal bond yields are affine functions of macroeconomic state variables. The equilibrium model acco...

We experimentally explore how investor decision horizons influence the formation of stock prices. We find that in long-horizon sessions, where investors collect dividends till maturity, prices converge to the fundamental levels derived from dividends through backward induction. In short-horizon sessions, where investors exit the market by receiving the price (not dividends), price levels and pa...

We examine the impact of risk-based portfolio constraints on asset prices in an exchange economy. We show that constrained agents scale down their portfolio and behave locally like power utility investors with risk aversion that depends on current market conditions. In contrast to previous results in the literature, we show that the imposition of constraints dampens fundamental shocks, challeng...

We study the representative consumer’s risk attitude and efficient risk-sharing rules in a singleperiod, single-good economy in which consumers have homogeneous probabilistic beliefs but heterogeneous risk attitudes. We prove that if all consumers have convex absolute risk tolerance, so must the representative consumer. We also identify a relationship between the curvature of an individual cons...

Using an ordinal approach to utility, in the spirit of Hicks (1962, 1967a), it is possible to greatly simplify the theory of asset prices. The basic assumption is to summarize any probability distribution into its moments so that preferences over distributions can be mapped into preferences over vectors of moments. This implies that assets, like Lancaster’s (1966) consumption goods, are bundles...

This study examines the effect of corporate liquidity and investor protection on the relation between financial distress and equity returns using a European sample over the 2002-2016 period. The results show that returns are hump-shaped and decreasing for increasing default risk. This can be rationalized by corporate liquidity indicating that higher cash holdings decrease liquidity risk. Moreov...